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Morning Briefings
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Global Soft Patch
(1) From dynamo to drag. (2) Export orders down in China and US. (3) Big dive in US M-PMI new orders. (4) Industrial commodity prices are down ytd. (5) Europe is in a recession. (6) No recession in consensus earnings estimates for S&P 500. (7) Analysts no longer cutting profit margin forecasts. (8) Is latest European Grand Plan unraveling already? (9) Happy Fourth of July!
Encore! Encore!
(1) Is 19 the charm? (2) Endgame averted again. (3) Is the correction over? Will the summer rally last? (4) Walk in the park, but beware of the muggers. (5) Watch out for that cliff! (6) A two-page memo kicks the can down the road in Europe. (7) From “nein” to “jawohl” in one long night. (8) Bad for Bunds. (9) Shaving our GDP forecast. (10) A bunch of weak US numbers.
European Vacation
(1) Another script for National Lampoon. (2) A guide book. (3) They invented the Trojan Horse. (4) More socialism in France. (5) Italians and Spaniards want some of Germans' AAA rating. (6) What is it about “Nein! No! Non!” that they don’t understand? (7) Another not-so-grand plan. (8) More used Benzes and Bimmers for sale in China. (9) The bad loans from Brazil. (10) A world of hurt. (11) Signs of life in US housing market. (12) Q2 earnings growth forecasts for the 10 S&P 500 sectors.
To Your Health!
(1) The Supremes will rule on Thursday. (2) Health care is a big business. (3) Consumer spending is 71% of GDP, but only 57% without health care. (4) Government pays for half of health care spending. (5) Number of beneficiaries is soaring. (6) S&P 500 Health Care shares doing well despite uncertainty about ObamaCare. (7) Analysts expect less earnings growth for Health Care. (8) Q2 earnings revisions trending lower for all but two S&P 500 sectors. (9) Jobs are getting harder to get again. (10) Four regional Fed surveys add up to weaker economy in June.
China Syndrome?
(1) Not so hot and spicy. (2) Less power in electricity output. (3) Wage hikes are squeezing profits, but aren’t boosting consumption. (4) Demography driving the new normal in China. (5) Mr. Li’s favorite indicators. (6) No train wrecks or meltdowns in China. (7) Analysts expecting weakest S&P 500 earnings growth since the recession. (8) Forward earnings still bullish. (9) Energy and Materials expected to disappoint most.
Monetary Ledge
(1) Timing is everything. (2) Operation Twist II ends when Fiscal Cliff starts. (3) Homeowners’ equity has already fallen off a cliff. (4) Flattening yield curve isn’t good for banks and their borrowers. (5) New Greek finance minister is sick to his stomach. (6) The ECB accepts sangria as collateral. (7) Unsettling headlines unsettle US economy. (8) More weak global indicators. (9) Sector-neutral still looks like the best bet for now.
Credit Divide
(1) The Fed’s epiphany. (2) Running out of options. (3) Could the economics textbooks be wrong? (4) The Credit Divide examined. (5) Refinancing activity is rebounding. (6) Mortgage lending isn’t. (7) Homeowners’ equity has plunged 50%! (8) Consumer credit led by student loans. (9) Fed’s financial repression is depressing interest income. (10) Is the summer rally over already? (11) Germans and Greeks.
Lots of Tight Oil
(1) Central banks stand ready. (2) OT2 or QE3 are the Fed’s lame choices. (3) No jolt to JOLTS from previous Fed easing. (4) Thrill or spill for stock prices? (5) Still expecting a Romney rally this summer. (6) Analysts preparing for another earnings season by lowering their estimates. (7) This time Europe could bite. (8) Thinking like a Saudi. (9) Squeezing more tight oil out of US shale. (10) No vacation from the Europeans, who will soon be on vacation.
Then and Now
(1) Policy paralysis or policy pandering? (2) Punch losing its punch. (3) How to avoid a lost decade. (4) “Austerians” weren’t popular during Latin and Asian debt crises either. (5) Partnering with the markets to resolve a crisis. (6) Brady Bonds, RTC, SAP, and TLGP. (7) How Sheila Bair saved the day. (8) Europeans could lose a decade. (9) Reality bites the Fed. (10) The US could leap over “credit divide” and “fiscal cliff” with Simpson-Bowles.
More Sangria and Ouzo
(1) Greeks vote to grin and bear it. (2) French vote for more socialists. (3) Germans don’t want to pay for Greeks and French to retire early. (4) Give them some schnapps. (5) TARGET2 showing depositors fleeing Spain and Italy. (6) Merkel’s nein, nein, nein plan. (7) Extreme investing: The riskier the better. (8) Central banks ready to provide more punch. (9) Draghi’s Grand Plan. (10) Is the correction over already?
Déjà Vu All Over Again
(1) Industry analysts have seen this movie before. (2) Triple dip for revenue estimates. (3) Yet revenues are expected to grow. (4) Business sales at record high in April. (5) So far, Europe's recession hasn’t hit S&P 500 revenue forecasts. (6) Are we losing the American consumer again? (7) The weather channel. (8) Help wanted by small businesses. (9) A briefing on the flow of funds in the US. (10) Economists studying fertility. (11) Retailers correcting after outperforming.
Demography Is Destiny
(1) Volatility is back. (2) Spain gets cut-rate loan as its yield soars to record high. (3) Sentiment is still quite bearish. (4) Merkel seeking to avoid bigger “disasters.” (5) FSMI is down, but it should be up soon. (6) “Live long and prosper” doesn’t work without more kids. (7) Socialism breeds infertility. (8) A labor shortage in China. (9) Europe may be demographically doomed. (10) From Baby Boom to Senior Boom in America. (11) The Theft of Generations.
Pass the Sangria
(1) Victory for Spain? (2) Rajoy’s Sangria. (3) The Bond Vigilantes are staying sober. (4) The endgame for debt-financed bailouts? (5) Holes in Spain’s life raft. (6) Votes coming up in Greece and France, and the Fed. (7) The earnings guidance season is ahead. (8) Industry analysts shaving their estimates. (9) Weekly leading indicators and railcar loadings. (10) OECD leading indicators are mixed, but on the soft side.
Around the World
(1) Checking the “Checklist for Optimists.” (2) Chinese trade data are hot and spicy. (3) China’s electric power is low. (4) PBOC has room to ease as inflation subsides. (5) A world tour of austerity and insanity. (6) Greek strike could disrupt vote. (7) Spain gets a rescue package partially backed by Spain. (8) French socialists worrying about leftists. (9) A popular comedian-turned-politician in Italy. (10) Corruption is corroding India’s growth rate. (11) Californians on fast track to nowhere.
Easing Does It?
(1) The Federal Open Mouth Committee. (2) Leaders and laggards in yesterday’s rally. (3) Staying sector-neutral for now. (4) Draghi is ready. (5) An August rally scenario following backing and filling in June and July. (6) Muddling along in the US economy. (7) Earnings season ahead. (8) Waiting for downward European guidance and positive surprises elsewhere. (9) European leaders won’t let crisis get in the way of their August vacations. (10) Romney rally. (11) Walker rally. (12) Yellen rally.
Corrections vs. Bear Markets
(1) P/E times E. (2) Corrections are driven by P/E. (3) Bear markets caused by earnings recessions. (4) A review of recent history. (5) Just another correction? (6) Earnings and valuations plunged during Great Recession. (7) A relatively optimistic outlook for revenues. (8) Profit margin going nowhere for a while. (9) Corporate cash flow hit by smaller depreciation expenses. (10) Wisconsin’s winner. (11) PATCO for public employee unions.
Checklist for Optimists
(1) Cold and drizzling in Boston. (2) Looking at clouds from both sides now. (3) A torrent of disappointing M-PMIs. (4) Global Growth Barometer is also dreary. (5) A checklist of happy outcomes. (6) Unions vs. taxpayers. (7) European banking integration or bust? (8) Giving a pass to Greece and Spain. (9) Lower oil prices. (10) Higher German wages. (11) The Chinese and Brazilians are stimulating.
Lake Winnipesaukee's Eight
(1) Almost as much fun as Ocean’s Eleven. (2) No retreat for the perma-bears. (3) From “Grexit” to “Spanic.” (4) The US economy is questionable again. (5) Fiscal union will make or break monetary union. (6) Europe’s ELA and TARGET2 showing bank runs. (7) Gridlock in France? (8) Shaving GDP in US. (9) Here come the Fed, ECB, PBOC, and BOE, again. (10) Time to buy?
Wary and Weary
(1) A weekend on a lake with lots of bears. (2) Other than Europe, all is well. (3) Record low safe-haven yields. (4) A bubble in risk aversion? (5) Still underweighting Europe, while overweighting US. (6) Stay Home vs. Go Global. (7) When dollar peaks, Risk On will be safe again. (8) Europe will recapitalize banks after Greek elections. (9) With US yields near zero, what would be the point of QE3? (10) Bill Dudley is ready to do right by US economy.
Energy Revolution
(1) Back to the future. (2) The consequences of cheap abundant energy. (3) High-Tech Revolution led to Energy Revolution. (4) The US is leading the way again. (5) Keep on trucking. (6) Coming soon: heavy-duty pickups running on natural gas. (7) Lots of worries for the short term. (8) Confidence in the future has been declining since 2000. (9) Lower gasoline prices didn’t boost confidence during May.
One Nightmare & 12 Dreams
(1) The end is near, or maybe not. (2) Will Wisconsin vote make or break public unions? (3) What if Supremes overturn ObamaCare? (4) Fiscal cliff is only a 1.3% drop! (5) Simpson and Bowles pushing their plan again. (6) What if Greeks vote to stay? (7) What if Obama wins, or loses? (8) Unyielding Mullahs will yield. (9) Peak oil has peaked: Look out below! (10) Incomes rising in China. (11) Second recovery in US. (12) Dreaming about a new high for stocks. (13) Adding risk back into recommended portfolio during June. (14) “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” (+ + +).
FYI from YRI
(1) Immediate access. Subscribers can get immediate access to our website by clicking on the link to it at the top of our emails. (2) Home delivery. In addition, there is now a “Home Delivery” link at the top of our emails. This new service allows you to order our publications for delivery to your email address whenever they are updated. Our system can also deliver many of the most widely followed official economic releases. (3) Customized research. We will happily work with you to create customized research products that our system can deliver to you as well. (4) Personal portal. Your personalized portal to our research can be accessed anytime on “MyPage,” which is also linked at the top of our emails. Try it. We think you’ll like it. Industry Focus. On our website, we now have dropdown menus in the “Industry Focus” section for the 10 sectors of the S&P 500. They include links to our publications tracking forward earnings, valuations, and other key metrics for most of the major S&P 500 industries. Let us know if you would like any of them added to your MyPage. Lost & Found. For some reason, Microsoft’s Outlook decided to put Monday’s Morning Briefing and yesterday’s Weekly Briefing in some of our readers’ junk folders. You can always find them at This Week, which is the first link on our website. PDF Version | This Week's Morning Briefings | Website
More Grand Plans, Again
(1) A list for the bulls. (2) Grand Plans buy time. (3) Getting ready for a Grexit. (4) Strong dollar weakens commodity prices. (5) Why are oil prices falling? (6) US growing. (7) Sentiment is bearish, which is bullish. (8) April and May data confirm housing recovery. (9) Lots of weak indicators in Europe and China.
In Governments We Trust
(1) The poster child for reckless governments. (2) The well-meaning road to ruin. (3) Fitch cuts Japan. (4) Japan has tried it all: Keynesian stimulus, ZIRP, and QE. (5) Scrambling to fashion another Grand Plan in Europe. (6) Is Europe “shovel ready” and ready for Eurobonds? (7) Growth financed by debt is “nonsense.” (8) The Golden State is our Greece. (9) Gov. Moonbeam dreaming about raising revenues with highest tax rates in the USA. (10) Wisconsin could put some holes in Democrats’ cheese. (11) Meet the true 1%. (12) Morning in America.
Train Spotting
(1) Train wreck spotting in Europe. (2) Happier tracks in the US. (3) Coal loadings are down, while other loadings are mostly up. (4) More autos are riding the rails. (5) Another green light for housing starts. (6) Intermodal loadings on schedule to pick up steam soon. (7) Q1 earnings growth rate was 8.9%, quadrupling expectations. (8) Q2 estimates are going down, setting stage for another up quarter. (9) Lots of NERIs turned positive in May. (10) A Risk On/Off primer.