Interactive Tool
FOMC Policy Meter
Track Federal Reserve policy stance across FOMC meetings on a dovish-to-hawkish scale with factor-by-factor comparison.
Dovish
Dovish
Hawkish
Hawkish
The Fed held rates unchanged but the statement is notably more hawkish than March — inflation language hardened to 'elevated' with a new energy price driver, Middle East uncertainty introduced as a two-sided risk, and three hawkish dissenters explicitly objected to any easing bias in the statement, signaling the Committee's center of gravity has shifted away from near-term cuts.
Hawkish
The June statement is incrementally more hawkish than April — the fractured dissent bloc has been replaced by unanimous 12-0 consensus around a hold, the inflation language remains 'elevated' with supply shocks and energy explicitly cited, and the blunt new pledge to 'deliver price stability' signals a hardened anti-inflation commitment with no easing bias whatsoever.
| April 29, 2026 | Factor | June 17, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rates held unchanged at 3.50–3.75% for another consecutive meeting, consistent with a patient, data-dependent posture. Neutral Hold | Rate Action | Rates held unchanged at 3.50–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, maintaining a restrictive posture with no movement toward easing. Neutral Hold |
Significant dissent split: one dovish dissenter (Miran, preferring a cut) versus three hawkish dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) who explicitly opposed any easing bias in the statement, reflecting a fractured Committee with a hawkish tilt. Hawkish Dissent Majority | Vote Unity | A unanimous 12-0 vote to hold — the prior meeting's dovish dissenter (Miran) and hawkish dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) all converged on the hold, eliminating any easing signal from dissent and reflecting Committee-wide consensus around patience. Unified Hawkish Hold |
Three voting members actively opposed inclusion of an easing bias, effectively signaling that forward guidance toward cuts lacks Committee consensus and the bar for easing has risen. Easing Bias Contested | Future Cuts | No forward guidance toward cuts is offered; the statement contains zero easing language, and the new 'deliver price stability' pledge raises the bar for any near-term pivot. No Easing Signal |
No explicit hike language, but the dual-mandate risk framing and hawkish dissents on easing bias suggest tightening optionality is being preserved rather than dismissed. Tightening Optionality Preserved | Hike Risk | No explicit hike language, but the unqualified commitment to 'deliver price stability' and persistent inflation framing keep tightening optionality firmly on the table. Tightening Optionality Preserved |
Inflation upgraded to 'elevated' — a more alarming characterization than March's 'somewhat elevated' — with global energy prices cited as a new upside driver, hardening the inflation assessment. More Hawkish vs. Prior | Inflation View | Inflation characterized as 'elevated' relative to the 2% goal with supply shocks and energy prices cited as drivers — language consistent with April but now paired with a stronger, unconditional price stability pledge. Persistently Hawkish |
No changes to balance sheet policy mentioned, implying continuation of the existing framework with no incremental easing or tightening signal. Neutral | Balance Sheet | The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves with no changes to balance sheet policy, signaling continuity and no incremental easing impulse. Neutral |