FOMC Policy Meter
Track Federal Reserve policy stance across FOMC meetings on a dovish-to-hawkish scale with factor-by-factor comparison.
Dovish
Dovish
Hawkish
Hawkish
Cut delivered, but barely — deepest vote split since 2019, with pause signaled immediately after.
Hawkish
Hold unanimous. Rate hikes explicitly floated. High bar set before any cuts resume.
| Dec 2025 | Factor | Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Cut 25bps — rates moved to 3.50–3.75% Dovish | Rate Action | Unanimous hold at 3.50–3.75% Neutral |
9-3 vote — most dissents since 2019; several called it "finely balanced" Hawkish Signal | Vote Unity | Unanimous hold, but some pushed for a "two-sided" framing on future moves Hawkish Signal |
Several members preferred no cut at all; pause immediately signaled Hawkish | Future Cuts | Cuts require "clear indication" disinflation is firmly back on track Hawkish |
Dot plot revised to ~2 cuts for 2026, down sharply from prior projections Hawkish vs. Prior | Hike Risk | Some officials explicitly raised the possibility of rate hikes More Hawkish |
Inflation elevated but expected to fall; downside risk to employment noted Mixed | Inflation View | Overshoot risk called "meaningful"; progress slow and uneven Hawkish |
Restarted T-bill purchases to maintain ample bank reserves Marginally Dovish | Balance Sheet | Continued T-bill purchases; no new balance sheet moves Neutral |
1 = Ultra-Dovish · 5 = Neutral · 10 = Ultra-Hawkish · Next FOMC: March 17–18, 2026