Interactive Tool
FOMC Policy Meter
Track Federal Reserve policy stance across FOMC meetings on a dovish-to-hawkish scale with factor-by-factor comparison.
Dovish
Dovish
Hawkish
Hawkish
The Fed held rates unchanged with one dovish dissent from Miran, but the statement retains a cautious, data-dependent tone with no meaningful softening on inflation or forward guidance — a modest step toward neutral relative to January's more explicitly hawkish posture.
Hawkish
The Fed held rates unchanged but the statement is notably more hawkish than March — inflation language hardened to 'elevated' with a new energy price driver, Middle East uncertainty introduced as a two-sided risk, and three hawkish dissenters explicitly objected to any easing bias in the statement, signaling the Committee's center of gravity has shifted away from near-term cuts.
| March 18, 2026 | Factor | April 29, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Unanimous hold maintained at 3.50–3.75%, with no change in the policy rate for another meeting. Neutral | Rate Action | Rates held unchanged at 3.50–3.75% for another consecutive meeting, consistent with a patient, data-dependent posture. Neutral Hold |
One dovish dissent from Miran, who preferred a 25bp cut, introducing an easing-leaning split in the Committee for the first time. Dovish Signal | Vote Unity | Significant dissent split: one dovish dissenter (Miran, preferring a cut) versus three hawkish dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) who explicitly opposed any easing bias in the statement, reflecting a fractured Committee with a hawkish tilt. Hawkish Dissent Majority |
Forward guidance remains data-dependent with no explicit easing bias; the bar for cuts is still framed as careful assessment of incoming data and evolving risks. Neutral | Future Cuts | Three voting members actively opposed inclusion of an easing bias, effectively signaling that forward guidance toward cuts lacks Committee consensus and the bar for easing has risen. Easing Bias Contested |
No explicit mention of rate hikes, and the two-sided risk framing from January has softened, reducing but not eliminating tightening optionality. Marginally Less Hawkish | Hike Risk | No explicit hike language, but the dual-mandate risk framing and hawkish dissents on easing bias suggest tightening optionality is being preserved rather than dismissed. Tightening Optionality Preserved |
Inflation described as 'somewhat elevated,' maintaining a cautious but not alarming characterization with no signal of renewed acceleration. Mildly Hawkish | Inflation View | Inflation upgraded to 'elevated' — a more alarming characterization than March's 'somewhat elevated' — with global energy prices cited as a new upside driver, hardening the inflation assessment. More Hawkish vs. Prior |
No changes to balance sheet policy mentioned, implying continuation of the existing QT/T-bill purchase framework. Neutral | Balance Sheet | No changes to balance sheet policy mentioned, implying continuation of the existing framework with no incremental easing or tightening signal. Neutral |