Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Onshoring, Acquisitions & Octopus
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Federal incentives promoting the onshoring of manufacturing plants have certainly hit their mark in Arizona and New York. Both states are sprouting new regional semiconductor manufacturing ecosystems, Jackie reports, dramatically boosting local economic development. … Also: Financial firms with investment banking operations report a pickup in M&A, a trend that should only accelerate when the interest-rate environment stabilizes. … And our Disruptive Technologies focus today is on Octopus Energy, a British company with an innovative business model that rewards green electricity consumption.
Over There & Over Here
Europe’s economic outlook is brightening, Melissa reports, perhaps presenting investment opportunities. The ECB’s monetary tightening has corralled inflation but also trampled GDP growth; this spring may bring monetary easing that enables revived growth. … Earlier fears of inadequate energy supplies for winter now appear ill-founded. … However, challenges remain in the form of higher energy costs and discord among EU nations over fiscal rules. … Also: Joe notes that the stock market’s post-October 27 rally has taken a turn for the broader since November 13, with more sectors participating in gains and the S&P 500 Value and Equal Weight indexes way outperforming their counterparts.
Over There & Over Here
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Europe’s economic outlook is brightening, Melissa reports, perhaps presenting investment opportunities. The ECB’s monetary tightening has corralled inflation but also trampled GDP growth; this spring may bring monetary easing that enables revived growth. … Earlier fears of inadequate energy supplies for winter now appear ill-founded. … However, challenges remain in the form of higher energy costs and discord among EU nations over fiscal rules. … Also: Joe notes that the stock market’s post-October 27 rally has taken a turn for the broader since November 13, with more sectors participating in gains and the S&P 500 Value and Equal Weight indexes way outperforming their counterparts.
A Remarkably Resilient Economy
Interest rates have been ascending and the tight labor market has been a problem for companies this year and last, but the US economy has been robust regardless. Today, we look at what accounts for its unusual resilience. … Hoisting the economy has been strength in the construction industry, especially multi-family, home improvement, and nonresidential building. … Also contributing to the economy’s resilience has been US corporations’ awesome cash generating capability. … And good news for next year: Signs are mounting that the rolling recession in the goods producing sector of the economy is bottoming and should give way to a rolling recovery in 2024.
A Remarkably Resilient Economy
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Interest rates have been ascending and the tight labor market has been a problem for companies this year and last, but the US economy has been robust regardless. Today, we look at what accounts for its unusual resilience. … Hoisting the economy has been strength in the construction industry, especially multi-family, home improvement, and nonresidential building. … Also contributing to the economy’s resilience has been US corporations’ awesome cash generating capability. … And good news for next year: Signs are mounting that the rolling recession in the goods producing sector of the economy is bottoming and should give way to a rolling recovery in 2024.
Ho! Ho! Ho!
The stock market’s Santa Claus rally has been turbocharged by a rallying bond market, subsiding inflation, lower oil and gasoline prices—in turn fueling consumers’ purchasing power—diminished fear of the Fed, and China’s economic weakness, which lowers the prices Americans pay for goods imported from there. … Jamie Dimon is right to warn that geopolitical dangers are great, but we don’t ascribe to his view that inflation remains troublesome, the Fed might tighten more, and the consumer’s strength likely isn’t sustainable. We think the economic evidence suggest otherwise on each score. … More good news: The sticky services inflation rates that have concerned the Fed are coming unstuck. ... Dr. Ed’s movie review: “The Holdovers” (+).
Ho! Ho! Ho!
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The stock market’s Santa Claus rally has been turbocharged by a rallying bond market, subsiding inflation, lower oil and gasoline prices—in turn fueling consumers’ purchasing power—diminished fear of the Fed, and China’s economic weakness, which lowers the prices Americans pay for goods imported from there. … Jamie Dimon is right to warn that geopolitical dangers are great, but we don’t ascribe to his view that inflation remains troublesome, the Fed might tighten more, and the consumer’s strength likely isn’t sustainable. We think the economic evidence suggest otherwise on each score. … More good news: The sticky services inflation rates that have concerned the Fed are coming unstuck. ... Dr. Ed’s movie review: “The Holdovers” (+).
MegaCap-8, AI & Gates On Climate Change
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The MegaCap-8 stocks are approaching their highest collective market capitalization ever, having already hit a record high in terms of their share of the S&P 500’s capitalization. … Also: Jackie discusses Google’s AI initiatives and election-year challenges. … And: Our Disruptive Technologies segment recaps Bill Gates’ practical and innovative approach to climate-related investments as the annual COP28 climate change conference kicks off in the UAE. Three innovations seem particularly promising.
Breaking Good
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Many of investors’ fears in 2023 turned out to be unfounded; all they really had to fear was fear itself. Now that investor sentiment has improved as investors have cast some fears aside, will undue fearlessness be a concern for the stock market in 2024? … Also improved from a year ago has been the consensus outlook of Wall Street strategists for S&P 500 operating earnings per share; our own estimates for this year and next have been and are still higher than the consensus. … Also: Joe shares the latest net estimate revisions data, showing more estimate cutting than hiking over the past three months. But analysts still expect positive y/y growth in both revenues and earnings next year.
Xi’s New Open-Door Policy
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: China’s economy is hurting, and the government’s recent attempt to cozy up to the US—on display in President Xi’s recent speech—reflects a dire need for more foreign direct investment. But to get it, the government may need to change its aggressive ways. … China’s consumers are feeling the economic pain firsthand, with declining net worths affecting their spending. Two major crises led China to this juncture, one related to its flailing property market and the other to its aging and shrinking population. … US consumers, on the other hand, are flush with substantial net worth, especially the Baby Boomers.
Update: Another Roaring Twenties May Still Be Ahead
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Our Roaring 2020s outlook for this decade centers on the idea that technological innovations such as the so-called BRAIN technologies will be widely adopted by companies, fueling productivity growth that minimizes the economy’s major problem of a tight labor market and drives widespread prosperity. The pandemic derailed a productivity boom that started gathering steam in late 2015 and is just this year getting back on track. … We think the stock market rally that began a year ago reflects the technological revolution at the core of our Roaring 2020s scenario. … Of course, there are doubters; we address each of their main points below.
Oil, Stocks & 3-D Hand Printing
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: In the spirit of the season, Jackie reflects on two sources of US investors’ gratitude—lower fuel prices and the stock market rally. … A confluence of factors has driven down fuel prices as Americans set out on their Thanksgiving travels, including record-high US oil production and lower-than-expected demand from China. … Interest-rate-sensitive industries have outperformed in recent weeks’ stock-market rally as investors lay bets that the Fed is done tightening. The rally has bumped three S&P 500 sectors to ytd gains above 30%. … And our Disruptive Technologies focus: hand-softening technology for robots, courtesy of 3-D printing.
Thanksgiving
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Americans have many blessings to count this week: Real GDP is at a record high; so are real consumption per household, real wages, and household net worth. Thanks to our Founding Fathers, no other country cultivates entrepreneurial capitalism as well as America. … Also: Joe finds that the leadership of the stock market rally has shifted away from large-cap and Growth stocks since last Monday. That follows the script of stock market rallies generally: They get off the ground with the strongest leaders, then broaden out to include other capitalization sizes and investment styles.
Retailers, Semis & Quantum Computing
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: With consumers employed and feeling flush, the holiday selling season is starting off well. The recent quarterly earnings reports of a few big retailers were mixed, with TJX reporting good customer traffic while Home Depot and Target beat expectations. ... Also: The S&P 500 Semiconductor industry’s price index has nearly doubled this ytd! But while some of its member stocks have posted outsized ytd gains, others have ytd drops. Jackie explores what’s fueling the price action. … And: Quantum computing is advancing by leaps and bounds. So is AI. Combine the two, as some companies are doing, and the innovation potential is astronomical.
Transitory After All
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: It’s no longer debatable: October’s headline and core CPI excluding shelter reveal that inflation has turned out to be a transitory rather than persistent problem. Rent-of-shelter inflation and nonhousing services inflation are coming back down to Earth more slowly but surely too, as the pandemic effects lifting them all are finally dissipating. … Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the supply of Treasuries didn’t push yields up in October, yet her actions easing supply concerns speak louder. … Also: Small business owners have plenty of job openings but not enough qualified job applicants. …. And: Joe finds just a handful of big companies account for lowered S&P 500 Q4 earnings expectations.
Relevant Matters
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Today, we focus our observations on earnings, valuation, and inflation. … S&P 500 companies’ collective Q3 earnings, forward earnings, and forward revenues all stand at record highs. But analysts’ earnings estimates for future quarters have been dropping. … There’s not always a neat inverse correlation between stock market valuations and bond yields. One reason: The MegaCap-8 stocks represent an outsized chunk of the S&P 500’s P/E; but with less leverage than most companies, interest rates affect them less. … Our moderating inflation outlook suggests no more federal funds rate hikes this tightening round; we examine some of the data it reflects.
Stock Investors Back In The Saddle Again
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The stock market has a good track record as a business-cycle indicator, even though last year’s bear market was a false alarm, as investors expected a recession that never came. Since that bear market ended, in October 2022, the stock market has been in a bull market, with its August-through-October weakness simply a correction. Now the Bond Vigilantes and their concerns have retreated, clearing the way for the S&P 500 to rise to our targets of 4600 by year-end 2023 and 5400 by year-end 2024. … Such expected stock market strength jibes with our economic outlook, which presumes that a recession isn’t likely before the end of 2024. ... And: Dr. Ed reviews “NYAD” (+).
Global Growth Fears Hit Industrials & Materials
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Low hopes for the global economy have been weighing on the share price indexes of the S&P 500 Industrials and Materials sectors, especially this week. Today, Jackie examines some counterintuitive stock price action among select industries and companies within the two sectors. For example, automating factories should be a promising business these days, but investors have punished two players in this space, Emerson and Rockwell, for disappointing recent quarters. Conversely, the S&P 500 Steel industry’s share price index has been performing well despite analysts’ low earnings expectations, lifted by a legal win for continued US tariffs on steel imports and the end of the UAW strike.
Captain America
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The US economy has remained remarkably strong in the face of the Fed’s attempts to tame inflation at the economy’s expense. So far, so good: Inflation has been moderating nicely but not bringing the economy down with it. Today, we review the major reasons for the US economy’s resilience. … In contrast, the global economy is weak as evidenced by the plunge in oil prices. Record US oil production has helped to lower oil prices from their September peak. ... And: Joe looks at analysts’ estimate revisions activity in the wake of a strong Q3. Despite that strength, Q4 estimates are dropping at rates faster than usual.
What’s Next? Pickleball!
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Back and forth we expect the bond and stock markets to bounce for the foreseeable future as the bulls and bears in each market alternate control. We see the 10-year Treasury bond yield ending the year at 4.50% and the S&P 500 at 4600. Next year, we expect continued volleying between bulls and bears to keep the bond yield rangebound between 4.00% and 5.00% and the S&P 500 rising to 5400 by year-end. … As for the economy, we think surprisingly strong economic growth is likely next year, led by a productivity boom that continues for the remainder of the decade—our “Roaring 2020s” scenario taking hold at last.
Throwing Caution To The Wind
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Last week brought epic rallies in both the stock and bond markets. We think the stock market’s correction is over and that the S&P 500 is back on track to end the year at 4600. All 11 sectors gained ground last week, many enjoying their best week in nearly a year. … As for the bond market rally that carried the 10-year Treasury bond yield down to a more comfortable distance from 5.00%, the wave of buying had multiple drivers. Nevertheless, beware of the Bond Vigilantes. … Also: Recent economic news supports our Immaculate Disinflation theory.
Burritos, Stocks & Hydrogen
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Packaged and fast food companies keep raising their prices, but consumers at nearly all income levels aren’t blinking at paying more. That was a common theme Jackie heard in the Q3 earnings calls of McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Unilever. … Also: What a difference a date makes! The stock market’s leaders and laggards among sectors over the first seven months of the year—prior to the S&P 500’s July 31 peak—bear little resemblance to those since July 31; former laggards-turned-leaders Health Care and Energy are cases in point … And: The discovery that large stores of pure hydrogen exist in nature holds exciting potential for powering the planet without polluting it.
Other Central Bankers & The MegaCap-8, Again
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Today, Melissa reviews how monetary policies are being conducted outside the US. Japan’s BOJ has given itself more latitude in policy decisions, retracting a commitment to retain its long-standing ultra-easy stance and widening its target interest-rate range. … China’s PBOC and central government have been working to stimulate its economy by numerous means. ... Europe’s ECB finally paused its rate-hiking recently after a 10-hike streak and trimmed its balance-sheet assets; no more rate hikes or reductions are likely for a while. … Also: Joe updates data on the MegaCap-8 stocks’ growing share of the S&P 500.
Trick Or Treat?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Treat: Consumers’ soaring net worth since the pandemic has reduced their need to save, in our opinion. That might explain why consumer spending has been resilient despite hard-landers’ warnings that households were depleting their excess saving and would have to retrench by now. … Treat: Inflation is still on course to fall to the Fed’s 2.0% target. … Trick: The Treasury might spook investors again on Wednesday when it details its next round of financing needs.
Geopolitics, GDP & Inflation
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: We recently raised our subjective odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 from 25% to 35% mostly because the geopolitical risks continue to escalate. We see two potential scenarios that could result in a recession, but they don’t warrant raising our recession odds at this time. The US economy remains resilient; we review recent areas of strength. … Also: Further escalation of war in the Middle East could bring unsettling uncertainty to the stock market against a backdrop of well known headwinds and a troubled Chinese economy. … And: We review the latest inflation news. We don’t expect the Fed to surprise markets with a rate hike this week.