Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Economic & Financial Stress & Stability
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Two different recent surveys taking the pulse of businesses—one measuring sentiment among small business owners nationwide and the other manufacturing activity in New York State—showed depressed readings. The problem isn’t demand but the ability to supply given the tight labor market. … Two recent Federal Reserve reports—measuring the household debt and credit of US consumers and the financial stability of the economy generally—showed that neither the consumer nor the banking sector nor the financial system generally is especially stressed.
Disintermediation, Disinflation & Dystopia
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The Fed sought to allay fears of bank runs when it provided backstop funds to banks. Consider the fears allayed—so far, at least. The disintermediation threat hasn’t descended; it hasn’t wrought a credit crunch, a recession, or widespread economic destruction. Now if fears aren’t stoked by further talk of bank runs, maybe, just maybe, the threat will go away. … Also: The high-inflation saga‘s loose ends all seem to be resolving now in a Hollywood-style happy ending. … And: The latest episode of the debt ceiling drama playing out in Washington is ably narrated by Capital Alpha’s Jim Lucier. … Lastly: Dr. Ed reviews “Beef” (+ + ).
Travel, Homes & Hydrogen
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Maskless and Covid-free, Americans have been venturing further abroad this year, a trend that has saddled companies with domestic-travel-related businesses with tough y/y comparisons. Airbnb and Wynn are prime examples. … Also: Jackie examines the curious divergence between the share price performances this year of two housing-related S&P 500 industries, Homebuilding and Home Improvement Retail, which usually perform in lockstep. … And: Our Disruptive Technologies focus this week is on utilities’ use of hydrogen to produce electricity.
Inflation During & After The Pandemic
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The inflation problem of recent years has proven to be transitory for consumer goods but persistent for consumer services. Even so, overall inflation has been moderating this year. In our soft-landing economic scenario (60% odds), we see the PCED rate falling into the 3.0%-4.0% range over the remainder of 2023 and below 3.0% in 2024 and 2025. Consumers’ inflation expectations aren’t so sanguine. In advance of this week’s inflation reports, we review recent developments on the inflation front. … Also: Wage inflation has been moderating too, but it’s still higher than Fed Chair Powell would like to see.
Jobs Driving The Economy
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: It’s tough to believe that a recession is imminent with the Coincident Economic Indicators index as strong as ever. The CEI’s payroll employment component hit a record high in April, suggesting that the other three (yet-to-be-reported) components did too. Admittedly, the Leading Economic Indicators hasn’t been strong; its weakness purportedly indicates a coming downturn in the CEI and real GDP. But look at its ten components: Services are noticeably absent. So the LEI is not as trusty a recession bellwether as the CEI, in our view. … Also: Joe Feshbach’s insights on the stock market from a trader’s perspective.
Pandemic Of Pessimism
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The stock market has been climbing since mid-October even though pessimism has prevailed among economists and stock market strategists. Today, we examine this “pandemic of pessimism”—how widespread it is, our perspective on the bearish case, what the Fed’s staff thinks is ahead for the US economy, and a few of the voices of doom. … We counter that the stock market’s trend is driven mostly by the earnings trend; we doubt QT will send either southward. Earnings growth may be weak in our rolling recession forecast, but growth it will be nonetheless. The labor market’s remarkable resilience reflects the economy’s resilience.
Semis, Onshoring Boom & Hydrogen
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The semiconductor industry is breaking out into the light at the end of its tunnel. Its stocks are up, its CEOs are optimistic, and worldwide semiconductor sales are starting to improve. AMD’s CEO sees big opportunity in the rapid pace of AI adoption. … Also: Jackie highlights some of the many new ventures manufacturers are planning to capitalize on trillions of dollars in government incentives. Their projects may be enough to stave off a recession. … And our Disruptive Technologies segment looks at the government-incentivized green hydrogen opportunity.
Capital Spending, Automation & Earnings
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: While surveys of business managers’ capital spending plans suggest more spending caution, that could partly reflect all the recession talk recently. Actual capital spending shows no sign of recession; it hit a record high last quarter. … Also: Factory managers are flocking to technological solutions to their many challenges, reports Jackie; Rockwell updates the story. … And: Joe reviews what Q1 results reported to date collectively say about how companies fared last quarter and how results jibe with analysts’ expectations. Notably, analysts haven’t been slashing estimates after hearing managements’ conference calls, as they’ve done in recent quarters.
Global Economy Here & There
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: We’re not among the vocal doom-saying economic prognosticators. We say there’s a 60% chance that the economy will land softly this year and pick up speed next year, fueled by productivity gains. … Also: We update our rolling recession watch, zeroing in on two loan-dependent industries likely to be rolled over next: autos and commercial real estate construction. … And: Melissa examines why inflation is stickier in Europe than in the US and discusses other economic headwinds facing the Eurozone. These headwinds and the Europe MSCI’s current valuation make us less bullish on European stocks than we were last June.
China, Energy & CO2
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: China’s President Xi has been pursuing an ambitious agenda for the nation, brazenly at that. Jackie reports on measures China has taken to step into the limelight on the world stage, beef up its military might, tighten its grip over multinationals operating there, and get its currency into global circulation. … Also: Energy markets are sending mixed signals, clouding the forecast. For the oil industry, tumbling earnings and revenues consensus expectations may be off the mark if optimistic oil price forecasts pan out. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment: Expect to see more companies capturing their carbon—and attractive tax credits.
Tech, Staples & Robotaxis
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Before long, every large corporation will be following in PricewaterhouseCoopers’ footsteps and trying to leverage AI to their advantage. Microsoft is well positioned to benefit via its OpenAI investment and Azure cloud computing service. … Consumer Staples companies have turned investors’ heads with stellar March-quarter results, buoyed by pricing power. But their unit sales growth might be vulnerable to price-sensitive consumers’ disloyalty. … And in our Disruptive Technology segment, Jackie explores the Achilles’ heel of autonomous vehicles: situations they haven’t been programmed for.
Fiscal Dystopia
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: If Congress doesn’t increase the federal debt ceiling soon, the government will no longer be able to pay its bills. Jim Lucier of Capital Alpha Partners reports on the progress of the Limit, Save and Grow Act, which may well pass the House this week. … The government has been in such pickles before, and the debt limit usually got raised before the 11th hour and a couple of times at the 12th hour. Of course, the recent consequences of the government’s unprecedented fiscal excesses have been massive federal deficits and inflation boosted by helicopter money. But doomsday as predicted by the doomsters has yet to arrive. We examine why. … Also: Joe looks at the profit margins that analysts expect for S&P 500 sectors and industries.
The Economy Is Beige
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The stock market’s resilience since October 12 in the face of Fed rate hiking reflects the economy’s resilience. Measures of breadth for industry analysts’ estimates of S&P 500 revenues and earnings have been improving since early this year, and their optimism is supported by surveys of corporate purchasing managers. … The Fed’s latest Beige Book confirms that the banking crisis hasn’t knocked the economy off its rolling-recession path. … Also: We’ve known that QT and the banking crisis exert tightening forces equivalent to some amount of federal funds rate hiking. Now the SF Fed has quantified it, finding that the “effective” federal funds rate is currently over 6%.
Yalies Yelling
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Banks were tightening lending standards before the banking crisis, and the crisis has escalated that. We don’t think a credit crunch will ensue, though we’re monitoring the situation closely. But we agree with Treasury Secretary Yellen that banks’ tightening of credit conditions effectively can substitute for further Fed tightening. … To monitor the crisis, we keep tabs on the Fed’s assets and liabilities, commercial banks’ assets and liabilities, and particularly the amount of loans being made by both. … Also: Dr. Ed reviews “A Spy Among Friends” (+ + +).
Health Care, Financials & Hydrogen
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Two of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors have staged impressive comebacks in recent weeks, Financials and Health Care. Jackie tells their laggards-to-leaders stories. … Also: Large banks’ sharp y/y increases in net interest income are making up for weaker areas of their business, enabling happy Q1 earnings surprises for some. NII gains likely peaked in Q4, but a reopening of the capital markets could help the industry as 2023 progresses. … And in our Disruptive Technologies segment: EVs have been heralded as the cars of the future, but it might be hydrogen powered cars that go the distance.
Construction, MegaCap-8 & Financials
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Even as the rolling recession rolls through segments of the real estate market, areas of the construction industry have never been stronger. Residential construction isn’t one of them, but nonresidential and public construction each hit new record highs in February. Construction industry employment did the same in March. … Also: If industry analysts’ forecasts are on the mark, the eight MegaCap-8 companies that exert outsized influence over the S&P 500’s performance can look forward to a rebound of their collective y/y earnings comparisons starting in Q2-2023. … And: The S&P 500 Financials sector’s growth prospects improved overnight when the Transaction & Payment Processors industry was added. Joe takes a look.
Pandemic Pandemonium
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The pandemic effectively accelerated the latest business cycle. Government interventions including lockdowns, rent moratoriums, stimulus payments, and ultra-easy monetary policy altered the behavior of economic actors including businesses, workers, consumers, landlords, tenants, home buyers, and home sellers. The result was a business cycle on warp speed. … Pandemic-altered consumer behavior escalated inflation, first for goods and then for services. … That disproves the theory that inflation is simply a monetary phenomenon, fully within the Fed’s power to control.
The Sky Isn’t Falling
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s ambiguous warnings about the economy broadly and banks specifically, voiced intermittently since last summer, have probably led many an investor astray. JPM stock has soared 34% since October, and the S&P 500 has leapt 7% in the month or so since SVB imploded, with every sector participating. … One thing Dimon said is on the mark: The economy isn’t headed for a credit crunch. That’s substantiated by US banks’ balance-sheet data, which we monitor. … Another alarmist creating disconcerting background noise is Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He’s not bothered by the economy or the banking crisis but by inflation, which he says requires further tightening. We strongly disagree.
Materials, Earnings & Bricks
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Banking-crisis-stoked recession fears knocked the S&P 500 Materials sector off its top-performing perch; now with those fears allayed, it’s been rebounding. Jackie examines the earnings prospects of two Materials industries, steel and copper, and the economic prospects of their biggest consumer, China. … Also: While analysts have lowered their earnings sights for S&P 500 companies collectively in recent weeks, forward earnings have risen for more S&P 500 industries than have fallen. The outlooks for travel and commodities related industries have improved the most. … And: A promising new energy storage solution comes from improbably low-tech sources that have been right under our feet: bricks and stones.
Bulls vs Bears
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: We’re still stock market bulls, believing that the bear market ended in October. But now that the Fed’s tightening has touched off a financial crisis, we’d defect to the bear camp IF the Fed were to keep on tightening. … While industry analysts have been lowering their earnings sights this year, that’s almost moot to stock investors, who are more focused now on next year’s better growth prospects. … Also: The current concerns of small business owners are anything but small, including inflation, labor shortages, and a possible credit crunch. … And: The MegaCap-8’s upcoming Q1 earnings reports could set the tone for the S&P 500’s performance.
The Big Lebowski
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The Fed’s rate hiking may have busted something in the credit system. Specifically, the disintermediation that tightening has caused may require small banks to cut costs so deeply that merging is their only recourse. … Given this, how can the Fed fail to conclude that the federal funds rate is restrictive enough now? Pausing the tightening for a while should land the economy softly, with moderating inflation. But continued tightening would cause a hard landing and possibly even deflation. … And: You wouldn’t know there’s any landing debate going on looking just at the labor market; payroll employment is at a record high.
It Still Looks & Walks Like A Duck
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The tug-of-war between the hard-landers and the soft-landers continues. The twists and turns of recent economic-outlook-impacting events have been taking investors for a ride, but our stance remains steadfastly fixed on one outcome: a soft landing of the broad economy with mini recessions continuing to roll through various sectors. … Friday’s labor market report supports our soft-landing thesis. … While hard-landers think the banking crisis will trigger a credit crunch, causing a recession, we doubt it—believing that scenario will be avoided by the actions taken by the Fed and FDIC. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Tetris” (+ + +).
Oil Markets & AI In HR
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Oil futures leapt this week after OPEC+ announced it would cut oil production. Jackie examines possible reasons for the organization’s decision and likely ramifications for Saudi Arabia, the US, and US oil producers. … Also: Judging by the 8% surge in the S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production price index over the past week, investors expect the production cuts will mean much better 2023 earnings prospects than the declines that analysts had been expecting. … And: What can’t bots do? Our Disruptive Technologies segment focuses on the use of AI to interview job candidates.
All About Earnings
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Today, we analyze the analysts, specifically industry analysts’ recent earnings and revenue estimate revision behavior. Their collective earnings estimate shaving doesn’t suggest recession jitters, in our view, even though flattish y/y revenues expectations may indicate concern about unit sales. Forward earnings remains consistent with a soft landing. … And: Analysts typically do lower their quarterly estimates as a quarter progresses, often setting the stage for a positive earnings surprise. Joe highlights the takeaways from data on earnings estimate revisions that occur in the runup to reporting seasons, including what the data say about Q1-2023.
Crosscurrents
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are up since October 12, which we believe was the bear market’s bottom and the start of a new bull market in stocks. Leading the charge has been the MegaCap-8 stocks, which collectively now make up nearly a quarter of the S&P 500’s capitalization and nearly half of the S&P 500 Growth index’s. … With all the focus on a prospective credit crunch, gone relatively unnoticed are two market-buoying positives: Corporate cash flow hit a record high at year-end 2022, and the global economy has been proving rather resilient.