Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Whip Inflation Now!
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: There’s no disputing it anymore: America’s inflation problem isn’t transitory. It has been persistent. The question now is whether it is protracted or not. Biden’s response to “our top economic challenge” is lame. … On a brighter note, we expect the release of May’s CPI report on Friday to show that consumer durable goods inflation is rapidly moderating. On a dimmer note, that positive should be partially offset by the unabated climb of prices for gasoline, groceries, and rent. … Also: Europe’s economy has been remarkably resilient in the face of its formidable challenges. Melissa examines the headwinds and tailwinds for Europe’s economy and MSCI index.
Jamie’s Hurricane
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Jamie Dimon spooked the financial markets last week with his forecast of an economic hurricane headed straight for us. Today, we take a balanced look at Dimon’s three big worries—the Fed’s quantitative tightening bursting financial asset bubbles, the Ukraine war driving commodity prices skyward, and consumers using up their stimulus savings. … Our perspective: Don’t be alarmed by the metaphor; hurricanes come and go. What matters is their magnitude, which Dimon admits is unknown. … However, the term “self-fulfilling prophecy” is bound to apply to some extent when the head of the nation’s largest bank says it’s going to batten down the credit hatches to prepare for a storm.
Altitude Sickness
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: As analysts’ earnings estimates have scaled new heights this year, investors have experienced valuation altitude sickness, which may soon be resolved by the drop in P/Es since the start of the year. Or it may resolve in a much more sickening fashion if a recession sends earnings expectations—and valuations—hurtling downward. …. A recession still isn’t our base case; we give it 40% odds. Notably, our forecasts for S&P 500 earnings and price targets assume that no recession is coming anytime soon. … To us, the latest economic indicators suggest a slowly growing economy headed for a soft landing, not a hard one. … Also: Wage inflation may be peaking.
Oil Trade & AI
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Ever wonder why the US is still dependent on oil imports even though fracking has boosted the amount of oil produced domestically to about the same as that consumed? And with that being the case, why does the US bother exporting oil anyway? The answers involve both a mismatch between the kind of oil America produces and consumes as well as a 100-year-old shipping law that has outlived its usefulness. Eliminating the Jones Act could not only help the US oil industry but could also revive US shipping and improve supply chains. … Also: How Nvidia and others hope to capitalize on AI and high-performance computing.
Braking Energy & Breaking China
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The Biden administration’s energy policy is worrying us. The plan it’s pursuing—a.k.a. “the transition”—is to pry Americans off fossil-fuel dependence by forcing up oil and gas prices. Such a crude plan is bound to have unintended consequences that put the overall economy at risk. Notably, the past six pre-pandemic recessions coincided with rapidly rising oil prices. This is one of the reasons that last week we raised our odds of a recession scenario to 40% from 30%. … And: More investors are agreeing with us that China is uninvestible. Amid economic woes, some self-inflicted, China is losing its foreign investors. We take a look at what’s scared them away.
Valuation Meltups & Meltdowns
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Valuation is in the eye of the beholder, but the economic outlook that influences it isn’t as subjective or hard to forecast, with lots of data available to help. … We think forward P/Es may be range bound this year and next and the S&P 500 may remain volatile below its January 3 high before climbing to new highs in 2023 and 2024. … Recession fears are weighing on valuations. We raised the odds of a mild recession to 40%, up from 30%, last week and again explain why. … Also: We discuss the variables suggesting a moderation of inflation ahead, led by consumer durables. … Finally: Dr. Ed reviews “Benjamin Franklin” (+ + +).
Energy, Retailing & Hydrogen
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Spending on stuff was so yesterday. Long-cooped-up consumers now want to spend on experiences and have fun! Not even stratospheric gasoline pump prices will keep them home this holiday weekend. Today, Jackie examines the factors driving energy prices skyward. … Also, some retailers’ Q1 earnings reports revealed a have/have-not dichotomy in the consumer discretionary space. Specifically, high-end Nordstrom made out far better last quarter than did retailers to the masses. … And: An update on the expanding use of hydrogen to fuel trucks, trains, and even factories.
The Recession Question: Raising the Odds to 40%
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Might the only recession we have to fear be one triggered by recession fear itself? It’s possible that we could talk ourselves into one. So while we still expect the economy to grow through the end of next year, we are raising the odds we assign to a recession scenario from 30% to 40%. That lowers our stock-market sights for this year and next. … We have new estimates for S&P 500 revenues, earnings, profit margins, P/Es, and price targets, which we still see at a new high late next year. … Also, we explain what has caused recessions in the past and why we don’t see those dynamics developing now. We’re far from alone in our optimism: Analysts keep raising their earnings estimates, and insider buying has been on fire.
Bear Anatomy
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: History and data offer perspective into what a prospective bear market in the S&P 500 may mean for investors. Today, we examine the past two bear markets’ longevity, quantify the index’s valuation slide to date from its peak, compare component indexes’ performances, and see how much better global stock markets have been faring. … Also: Rapidly rising rent inflation will offset some of the improvement we expect in several other categories of consumer prices. Perversely, the Fed is putting upward pressure on rents by reducing the affordability of buying homes.
Bear Spray
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Today, we zero in on stock market bears—why they’ve been wrong for 13 years (quantitative easing), why they’re right currently (quantitative tightening), and why we believe their outlook is too pessimistic. … Primarily, we don’t expect an imminent recession because conditions aren’t ripe for a credit crunch. Additionally, the recent tech stock weakness is no Tech Wreck 2.0; inflation, looking peakish already, won’t prove intractable; and wage pressures are stoking an economy-boosting productivity boom. … We stand behind our “Roaring 2020s” scenario following a brief interlude in the 1970s. … We’ll be taking bear spray to Yellowstone. … Finally, Dr Ed reviews “Downton Abbey.”
Retailers, Materials & Fintech
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: First the good news: Retail sales rose solidly in both March and April. Now the bad news: Two retail giants missed their Q1 earnings marks, causing recession-fearing investors to jettison their stocks. Jackie recaps what their management teams had to say about the quarter. … Also: With recession fears running high among investors, why is the S&P 500 Materials sector in their good graces? It has outperformed the market and most other sectors ytd. Within Materials, we focus on one industry with a shiny outlook, Steel, and a single member, Nucor. … Also: A look at Walmart’s foray into fintech.
Analysts Are from Venus; Investors Are from Mars
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Industry analysts are accentuating the positives of inflation; they’ve been raising their revenues and earnings estimates in response to it all year long. Investors are accentuating the negatives of inflation; they’ve been dropping how much they’re willing to pay for estimated earnings all year long. A recession would prove the investors right, but that’s not our expectation. … We see stagflation ahead, with a slowly expanding economy and slowly moderating inflation. … And: Melissa recaps the UN FAO’s disconcerting analysis of Ukraine war impacts on global food inflation and hunger. … Also: How certain recent Biden administration actions may unwittingly exacerbate both.
Run(off) for the Hills?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: It begins next month: the Fed’s plan to let its maturing securities run off its balance sheet without replacing them—a.k.a. quantitative tightening (QT). How right are investors to be freaked out? How legitimate are their suspicions that the Fed is erring on the side of overkill after having lost ground in the fight against inflation? … Today, we separate the fears from the facts and assess the likely impacts for the federal deficit, fixed-income markets, the stock market, and the economy. … Also: We lay out the runoff plan, review the last QT episode for insights, and put investors’ fears into perspective.
Waiting for Something To Break
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: After many years of ultra-easy monetary policy, the realization that it’s going away has frightened investors to a degree unprecedented this early in a tightening cycle. The pre-tightening fear alone burst plenty of speculative bubbles, yet no dreaded credit-crunch/recession scenario has materialized. True, the inflation genie isn’t back in the bottle yet, but we expect it will be in coming months and without crashing the economy. … The Fed’s recently released Financial Stability Report was sanguine as well. … But our soft-landing scenario is a contrary one. So we’re keeping our eyes peeled for signs of both the recession that we don’t expect and the peaking of inflation that we do. … Also, we review “Ozark” (+ + +).
Tech Wreck, China Syndrome & Crypto Crash
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Investors aren’t cutting tech stocks any slack these days. Jackie looks at how the mighty have fallen, with focus on two tech highfliers whose Q1 earnings didn’t make the grade. … The fallout from China’s Covid lockdowns is inflicting damage on sector after sector of the Chinese economy, with no end in sight. The government is stepping in with support programs for businesses and the unemployed. … Also: The innovation once hailed as an inflation hedge has proved to be anything but. Cryptocurrencies have shrunk in recent months to a shadow of their former value. The stocks of companies working in the crypto industry have been clobbered as well. TerraUSD breaks the buck, and investors flee the not-so-stablecoin.
More on Inflation & Stocks
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The S&P 500 is undergoing a correction more persistent than the 72 panic attacks we’ve counted during this bull market, but will it become a bear market? The jury is still out. There is precedent for a valuation-led bear market despite stellar corporate fundamentals, during 1987. There was no recession that time, and the bear market was short-lived. … Is the real earnings yield as bearish as it seems? … Also: We look at what stock markets do during inflationary periods. … And: The collective voice of small business suggests the economy is in a stagflationary funk. … Finally: A look at what’s happening on Japan’s monetary and fiscal policy fronts.
Inflation, Bonds & Stocks
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Since 2008, the Fed’s quantitative easing had kept a lid on bond yields. But with the Fed now tightening—releasing bond yields to move solely by market forces—will yields be pushed above the inflation rate (where they usually reside)? A reversal from negative to positive real bond yields could trigger a credit crisis and recession; but we put the odds of that scenario at only 30%. Rather, we expect a soft landing for the economy, inflation moderating soon, and the Treasury bond yield marking time between 3.00%-3.25%. … For the stock market, high inflation boosts earnings yet depresses the valuations investors are willing to pay for those earnings. The lower valuations reflect investors’ fears that this will all end badly.
Inflation Peak-a-Boo
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: We concur with Fed Chair Powell that getting inflation back to Earth needn’t crash our strong, liquid economy. The Bond Vigilantes aren’t as far behind the inflation curve as the Fed: They’ve already tightened credit conditions in the financial markets significantly. We expect inflation to peak this summer between 6%-7% and to recede to 3%-4% next year with no recession. … We may have spotted the first signs of peaking inflation already, in lower three-month than y/y rises of several price and wage measures. … But there are certainly plenty of indicators that cast doubt on the peaking-soon scenario. … Also, a movie review: “Summit of the Gods” (+ + +).
Powell, Travel, Forward Earnings & Quantum Sensors
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Investors liked the middle-of-the-road approach Fed Chair Powell laid out after yesterday’s FOMC meeting. We did too. … Travel-related industries are booming! Their Q1 earnings calls were brimming with optimism. Yet investors seem to have missed the memo: The share price indexes of most travel-related S&P 500 industries have plunged ytd ..: And it’s not just a travel thing: Most industries are seeing disconnects between earnings prospects and share price performance. Someone’s wrong: Either industry analysts are too optimistic in their estimates or investors too pessimistic about valuations. … Also: A developing technology with diverse potential uses: quantum sensors.
Fed Set To Hike By 200 Basis Points
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The financial markets have thoroughly discounted the Fed’s plan to raise the federal funds rate incrementally by a total of 200bps, so why not dispense with the increments and go for it? That’s not in the Fed’s data-dependent DNA. … Today, we examine the case for investing in bonds: The Fed is bound to tame inflation one way or another. If inflation drops back to 3.0%-4.0% next year and 2.0% in 2024, as we expect, then a 3.00% 10-year Treasury bond yield is quite interesting. … Also: A look at the ECB’s policy playbook, which is much less hawkish than the Fed’s.
Too Much Pessimism?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: To look at analysts’ record-high and rising estimates for the companies they follow, you’d never guess that investors are sweating bullets over prospects for the US economy. But are their fears of imminent recession justified? Today, we tackle that question, assessing both the negatives that investors are accentuating as well as the positives that some economic indicators are signaling. Importantly, the US economy is shipshape. … And we remind readers: Corrections, such as the S&P 500 is in now, tend to turn into bear markets only when investors’ recession fears materialize; when they fail to, valuation multiples tend to rebound.
The Big Leak
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Spooked investors have driven valuation multiples down to the low end of our projected range and deposited the Nasdaq in a bear market and the S&P 500 back in correction territory. … Today we examine the causes and effects of global inflation. … Excessive US fiscal and monetary stimulus ignited the US inflation conflagration by triggering a demand shock that triggered a supply shock. When much of the stimulus leaked abroad (confirmed by trade data), it fueled global inflation. … Inflation has been deflating consumer spending on goods but not on services. But soon we expect durable goods inflation to peak and drop. Inflation has a history of being spikey. ... Finally, movie review: “WeCrashed” (+ + +) is about WeWork, not the stock market.
China, Tech & Electricity
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: With nearly a quarter of China’s people locked in their homes by strict Covid policies, China’s economy is suffering, its policymakers are reacting, and ripple effects are spreading throughout the globe. Today, we examine some of these effects on US companies with business ties to China and on financial markets. … Also: Investors have sent tech stocks to the doghouse, their collective performance down nearly 20% ytd, and the MegaCap-8 hasn’t been spared. Indeed, Netflix and Meta are down 67% and 46% ytd. … And a look at virtual power plants, making electricity demand as adjustable as solar/wind supply is intermittent.
Inflated Economy
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Inflation is inflating corporate revenues: All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 boast rising forward revenues ytd, eight of them to record highs. It’s also inflating nominal economic growth even as real economic growth slows. This is bullish for earnings provided that companies can keep offloading higher costs to customers via pricing and provided that no recession comes along to stop that. … Also: We review the latest economic releases, which jibe with our stagflationary outlook for 2022. … And: The global food crisis. Food shortages and food inflation are bound to worsen, with dire implications for poorer nations around the world.
Waiting for a Break
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Investors are fretting that the Fed will slam on the monetary brakes, sending the economy hurtling down a ravine, but how legit are their concerns? Historical behavior of stock valuations and earnings estimates prior to feared and actual recessions offers perspective. Corrections usually reflect false alarms about impending recessions, whereas sustained bear markets reflect the real thing. … We also check more conventional leading economic indicators for perspective. … Plus: Fresh supply-chain disruptions resulting from China’s widespread lockdowns could trigger a recession there and potentially weigh on growth here. … And: We examine the latest stats on another of China’s homegrown problems: its birth dearth.