Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
No Shortage of Earnings!
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) The definition of a meltup. (2) Earnings-led vs P/E-led meltups. (3) S&P 500 flying to record altitudes along with Blue Angels. (4) How to move a wagon train. (5) Q3 earnings beating expectations. (6) Consensus earnings estimates rising for next five quarters. (7) Record highs for forward revenues and earnings. (8) Why aren’t SMidCaps beating LargeCaps? (9) Profit margins set to stall at record highs? (10) M-PMI remains bullish for earnings. (11) Inflation target practice at the Fed.
What’s Up with TINA?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) “TINA” isn’t the only acronym in town. (2) Big inflows into equity ETFs. (3) Big outflows from equity mutual funds. (4) A couple of extra trillion dollars here and there. (5) Lots of excess saving. (6) Bond funds having more fun. (7) The Fed taketh away. (8) Tapering around the corner. (9) From FAAMGs to GAMMAs. (10) Excluding GAMMAs, S&P 500 forward P/E more reasonable. (11) Smith, Marx, Schumpeter, Keynes, and Samuelson: What they got wrong.
Greenwashing in Glasgow
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) UN’s 26th conference to nowhere. (2) Two important no-shows. (3) China’s homegrown problems keep the country pumping CO2. (4) Putin is in no rush to help the world kick its fossil fuel addiction. (5) Chilly Siberians wouldn’t mind a little global warming. (6) Four countries produce half of CO2 emissions. (7) King Coal rules Asian power producers. (8) A green version of whitewashing. (9) Coal and gas prices take a dip. (10) On the lookout for a wage-price spiral. (11) Supply disruptions hit auto component of GDP. (12) The inflation “tax” weighs on real personal income and consumer spending. (13) Movie review: “De Gaulle” (+ +).
Margins, FAANMGs, and Batteries
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Margin pressure is on. (2) Companies boost sales and raise prices to fight back. (3) Technology helps reduce costs and boost productivity. (4) Meet Flippy, a chicken-wings-cooking robot. (5) Many robots and four humans pick, pack, and ship 200,000 packages a day in one warehouse. (6) FAANMG’s gains slow. (7) Facebook, Amazon, and Apple hold back the gang. (8) Panasonic moves forward with bigger, better Tesla battery. (9) Honeywell utility-scale battery provides power for 12 hours and doesn’t use lithium. (10) Form Energy offers up a 100-hour battery. (11) Bill Gates’ firm invests in ESS. (12) FleetZero wants cargo ships to use batteries, too.
Kinks in the Chain
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) From JIT to JIC. (2) Not so easy to go back to JIC. (3) From demand shock to supply shock. (4) Auto industry invented JIT, and is now crippled by it. (5) Lowering and raising our real GDP through the end of next year. (6) Raising our inflation forecast. (7) Supply-chain indicators. (8) Santa will have plenty of good excuses for not delivering all the goods. (9) Is California to blame? (10) Amazing Amazon has hoarded all the truckers, trucks, and cargo planes!
Less Worrisome Worry List, For Now
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Monday webinars. (2) Hooray for profits! (3) Bobby McFerrin’s happy tune. (4) Halloween came early for stock investors. Xmas might have started early too. (5) Bull/Bear Ratio isn’t bullish, which is bullish. (6) Ex-FAAMGs, stocks are fairly valued. (7) Earnings picture remains bright. (8) Lots of very liquid liquidity sitting in demand deposits. (9) No fiscal cliff ahead. (10) Beijing says “Forget CO2, burn coal baby!” (11) Nord Stream 2 likely to be full of gas for Europe soon. (12) Evergrande is still in business. (13) Inflation remains the main worry on the worry list.
Phillips CurveMaking a Comeback?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Something different. (2) #1 new release. (3) Johnny Paycheck and the Great Resignation. (4) Quitting for better pay, caregiving at home, less stress, retirement, self-employment, jobless benefits, or health. (5) The oldest Baby Boomers turned 65 in 2011, 75 in 2021. (6) Growth in working-age population and in labor force close to zero. (7) Is the Phillips Curve rising from the dead? (8) The model is missing an important variable, i.e., productivity. (9) Labor shortage likely to depress unemployment rate and boost productivity. (10) Movie review: “Dune” (+).
Radioactive Briefing
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Counting the cargo ships in LA’s harbor. (2) Companies face higher input, transportation, and labor expenses. (3) P&G has the pricing power to pass on rising costs. (4) Delta doesn’t. (5) Kellogg and Deere face striking workers. (6) Workers in Buffalo attempting to form first US Starbucks union. (7) Beige Book lays out the price pressures companies face. (8) Transition to green energy may require more nuclear plants. (9) England and France counting on nuclear energy as part of their energy mix. (10) New small reactors gaining acceptance. (11) Price of uranium and uranium-themed ETFs jump. (12) New exchange-traded trusts snapping up the radioactive commodity.
Recession Assessment
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) A new book about profits and other related matters. (2) A hypersonic business cycle? (3) Short recession. Fast recovery. What’s next? (4) GDPNow model now sees almost zero growth in Q3! (5) Two professors forecasting a recession in the next 18 months. (6) Consumer expectations are depressed, but leading indicators still signaling growth. (7) Slicing and dicing latest FOMC minutes: Time to start tapering. (8) Brainard and Lagarde are two BFF central bankers out to save the world from climate change.
The Fed’s Squid Game
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Fed’s green light enabled the V-shaped recovery. (2) Light was still green when inflation was deemed to be transitory. (3) More persistent inflation forces Fed to turn on flashing orange light. (4) Will a wage-price spiral force Fed to turn on the red light? (5) Powell is frustrated. (6) Will supply bottlenecks also be less transitory than Fed expects? (7) Lots of liquid assets. (8) Parts shortages depressing output in US and Eurozone. (9) Mixed readings in September’s CPI. (10) Stock market bulls likely to charge through flashing orange light. (11) It’s still a green light for banks. (12) China’s faulty light switch. (13) Movie review: "Squid Game" (+).
Climate Central Planners
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Incompetent central planners. (2) Not ready for prime time: Renewables still unreliable and insufficient. (3) A Nobel idea. (4) Soaring natural gas prices crimping supply of energy-intensive metals. (5) Clumsy transition to renewables adding to inflationary pressures. (6) A surprising scenario: weaker Chinese economy, stronger metals prices, and firm dollar. (7) A chronology of China’s energy crisis. (8) Xi’s climate pledge to the UN. (9) Coal prices still soaring in China. (10) A very brief history of inflation during the 1970s. (11) A very brief history of the 2020s.
JP Morgan, China & Methane
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) JPM leads the bank earnings brigade. (2) Results helped by improving credit and strong capital markets. (3) Corporate loan demand still sluggish. (4) Yield curve may lend a hand in the future. (5) The hits keep coming in China’s property market. (6) China’s energy prices soar, and electricity service gets interrupted. (7) Xi wants “peaceful” reunification with Taiwan as he flies military jets nearby. (8) Environmentalists focus on methane. (9) Blaming the cows and sheep. (10) New foods and a mask might help gassy cows. (11) Old natural gas wells silently hurting the environment.
Lots of Moving Parts in US Labor & Housing Markets
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) There are 1.25 jobs for each unemployed worker. (2) Surge in quits creates more job openings. (3) Employers hard-pressed to fill job openings. (4) Housing market cooling, but will stay warm. (5) New and existing home inventories edging up. (6) Home price appreciation may have peaked for a while. (7) Fewer “For Rent” signs. (8) Plenty of federal relief still left for renters. (9) Still good times for multifamily homebuilders. (10) Institutions buying homes to rent.
Profit Margin Winners & Losers
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Demand for energy outpacing renewable supplies. (2) Renewable energy sources are unreliable. (3) Hard to say which way the wind will blow, if at all. (4) Grim choice: natural disasters vs freezing in the dark. (5) Bigger natural disasters because more people in harm’s way. (6) Unintended consequence for ESG investors: Dirty energy could outperform clean energy in the stock market. (7) Energy has tiny market-cap share currently. (8) An ideal scenario for dirty Energy’s profit margin. (9) Q3 earnings reporting season likely to be full of tales of labor and parts shortages and rising costs. (10) SMidCaps’ fundamentals stronger than LargeCaps, and their stocks are cheaper.
Lots of Good News About Jobs
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Our proxy for wages and salaries at another record high. (2) The inflation tax is taking its toll. (3) Are teachers quitting, retiring, or both? (4) Pandemic-challenged industries continue to recover. (5) More full-time jobs for part-time workers. (6) Wages rising faster for lower-wage workers, and beating inflation. (7) Biggest wage gains in industries with highest job openings rates. (8) A close look at NILFs. (9) Retiring seniors. (10) The grim reaper is taking a toll on labor force too. (11) Foreign workers have gone back home. (12) Movie review: “No Time To Die” (-).
Facebook, Russian Gas & Green Shell
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Facebook took some hits. (2) Facebook's AI needs to catch up to the bad guys. (3) Understanding the influence of algorithms. (4) Zuckerberg defends his baby. (5) Energy prices take a breather. (6) Putin tells Europe not to worry—he's got plenty of natural gas. (7) Shell is turning green. (8) Shell is spending on wind, solar, biofuels, and CO2 disposal.
That ’70s Show?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Panic Attack #70 comes with more baggage than usual. (2) Global energy crisis beats Evergrande for number #1 on worry list. (3) Lots of different reasons for energy troubles in Europe and China. (4) US oil and gas rig count remains low. (5) Weekly US oil output isn’t responding to higher oil prices. (6) Parts shortages slamming the brakes on auto sales. (7) More bad news from China: property developers in trouble and more tensions with Taiwan. (8) Tale of two scenarios. (9) Q3 fundamentals likely to be strong, while guidance will be unsettling.
People’s Bank of Amerika (FKA ‘the Fed’)
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) A more populist Fed in 2022 with a new Fed chair. (2) Powell conversion to progressivism is too recent. (3) Yellen’s friends. (4) More FOMC seats opening up. (5) Fed may raise inflation target next year. (6) Day trading at the Fed. (7) Pay no attention to the dot plot behind the curtain. (8) Meet Lael Brainard. (9) The Fed is way behind the curve. (10) Meet Saule Omarova. (11) Amerika, the 1987 miniseries.
A Spell of Stagflation
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Consumers are experiencing stagflation currently. (2) Price increases offsetting most of the rise in personal income this year. (3) Real consumption of goods falling over past five months. (4) Delta and inflation surge depressing Consumer Optimism Index. (5) Costco is rationing some products. (6) Inventory restocking and capital spending should offset weak consumer spending. (7) Here is how government policies have been causing global supply-chain chaos and boosting inflation. (8) Climate change activists are depressing fossil fuel supplies faster than boosting renewable sources of energy, which are unreliable. (9) Powell is frustrated by inflationary supply bottlenecks that he helped cause. (10) Why raising taxes on corporations and pass-throughs is bad for jobs growth. (11) Movie review: “The Many Saints of Newark” (- -).
September, Energy, & Crypto
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Glad September is almost over. (2) Higher interest rates help S&P 500 Financials, and higher oil prices boost S&P 500 Energy. (3) Rising commodity and transport prices hit earnings. (4) Vietnam’s factory closures hurting US retailers. (5) Rising energy prices around the world raise questions about green energy. (6) The price of Europe’s carbon credits doubles this year. (7) China’s factories facing blackouts. (8) Everyone wants LNG, and the US is selling it. (9) Cryptocurrencies face criticism from Dimon and Gensler. (10) China ends debate and bans cryptocurrency transactions and mining. (11) Meet Mr. Goxx, a crypto-investing hamster.
Is Powell Transitory?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Bonds are starting to make sense again. (2) Tapering is coming. (3) New tune on tapering in latest FOMC statement. (4) Powell says employment goal “all but met.” (5) Brainard agrees. (6) Copper/gold price ratio remains bearish for bonds. (7) Powell: Forget base effect and focus on supply bottlenecks. (8) Bullish and diversified for frequent rotations. (9) Financials and Energy get a turn to outperform. (10) DC’s sausage factory. (11) Powell, the Pivoter. (12) Is he as dangerous as Senator Warren says?
Some Good News, Some Bad News
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Cresting pandemic wave. (2) Back to pre-pandemic railcar loadings. (3) Ford is parking lots of unfinished trucks at Kentucky Speedway. (4) Record new orders with usual lag in shipments. (5) Q3 real GDP tracking at 3.2%. (6) Europe is providing a cautionary tale on outlook for energy availability and pricing. (7) Chevron’s CEO implies climate activists interfering with market signals. (8) President Xi facing two crises.
What Are the Odds?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) On the road in Cincinnati. (2) Lots to talk about. (3) The Roaring ’20s vs the Great Inflation of the ’70s. (4) Still placing 65/35 subjective odds. (5) Productivity growth is the key swing variable. (6) Manufacturing productivity growth decline coincided with US manufacturing capacity moving to China. (7) The case for reshoring has never been better. (8) A productivity boom would be good for real wages and profit margins. (9) Productivity growth collapsed during the 1970s. (10) Three inflation scenarios. (11) Climate change activists could leave us all out in the cold. (12) Movie review: “Nine Perfect Strangers” (+).
Natural Gas & Unnatural Exosuits
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Evergrande’s demise continues to unfold. (2) Watching for the ripple effects on the Chinese economy. (3) US companies may get caught in the morass. (4) Natural gas supplies becoming the world’s latest problem. (5) Less wind and low natural gas production leads to spiking prices. (6) Europe’s dependence on US/Russia natural gas imports grows. (7) Demand for LNG strong in Asia and Brazil too. (8) High gas prices have UK energy retailers going bust and fertilizer factories closing. (9) Sensitive robots with soft, smart attachments can pick up fruit and Peeps.
Animal Farm
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Gray rhinos, black swans, and blue angels. (2) Evergrande’s troubles started about a year ago with its first liquidity scare. (3) “Three red lines” regulation worsened liquidity crunch for property developers in recent months. (4) More cracks in the Great Wall of China. (5) Will this be the Great Fall of China? (6) Xi Jinping, Mao Zedong, and George Orwell. (7) Xi’s hard left turn. (8) Nine gray rhinos. (9) S&P 500 forward revenues, earnings, and profit margin all at record highs.