Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
The Myth of Icarus
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Meet Icarus, ill-fated son of Daedalus, who invented the Labyrinth. (2) Icaria may be a tourist trap. (3) Wax and the Buffett Ratio. (4) Untimely and timely valuation ratios. (5) Growth tends to fly closer to the Sun than Value. (6) Normalized P/Es looking past the pandemic. (7) Elon flying with Icarus. (8) The Sun is further from Mars than from Earth. (9) Is Tesla the Yahoo! of this bull market? (10) S&P 500 has been tracking dividends divided by 2% dividend yield. (11) A 1.00% dividend yield would put the S&P 500 at 6000 today. (12) One more time: Bond yield would be closer to 2.00% than 1.00% but for Fed’s intervention. (13) Some like it not too hot.
‘There Will Be Growth in the Spring’
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Some good news among the labor market’s latest disappointing news. (2) Private payrolls and full-time jobs remain upbeat. (3) Earned Income Proxy continues to recover. (4) GDPNow sees real GDP tracking at 11.2% for Q4! (5) The economic wisdom and insights of Chauncey Gardiner. (6) Labor force still down 4 million from peak. (7) Jobless tally 5 million above start of year. (8) Payrolls down 10 million from peak. (9) Both goods and services employment continued to recover in November. (10) Remarkably resilient income and payroll tax receipts. (11) Counting the unemployed. (12) Jobless claims aren’t what they claim to be. (13) Movie review: “The Undoing” (+).
Delivering Vaccines During the Holidays
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) More holiday shopping moves online as consumers avoid stores and Covid-19. (2) Freight & Logistics and Trucking industries having a banner year. (3) Opportunities and challenges in the holiday online shopping surge for FedEx and UPS. (4) Both companies aim to deliver vaccines at Warp Speed. (5) Truckers still hiring drivers and expanding capacity. (6) Rails helped by trade and autos, hurt by coal and oil. (7) Airlines having a year to forget. (8) Much optimism priced into Transports’ earnings multiples, except for Airlines’. (9) AI seeping into everything. (10) CRM companies harness AI in battle for market share. (11) Look Mom, no driver.
The Carrie Trade
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Stephen King’s first horror novel. (2) Bond Vigilantes have something in common with Carrie. (3) Bond, Dow, and Dollar Vigilantes. (4) The CRB index is bullish for Emerging Markets, commodity currencies, and materials stocks. (5) Red metal is bullish on Red China. (6) Copper/gold price ratio is bearish for bonds. (7) The Fed’s Carrie trade is keeping bond yield under 1.00%. (8) Public pension funds are significantly underfunded according to Fed data. (9) A political problem that may require a political solution.
What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Too many bulls? (2) A so-so sell signal from Bull/Bear Ratio. (3) Frothy sentiment indicators. (4) No longer leading the running of the bulls. (5) Glory or gory? (6) A 8-point worry list for bulls. (7) Panic Attack #68 is up next, but when? (8) January 5 Georgia elections could make or break Biden’s agenda. (9) Fiscal stimulus cliff ahead? (10) Bearish scenarios for the dollar and bonds. (11) The Middle East is heating up again. (12) Meltdowns usually follow meltups. (13) Santa’s rally came early this year.
Dawn of a New Era?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Post-election relief rally. (2) Three booster-shot Mondays. (3) Team of seniors. (4) Rocking-chair Liberals vs Progressives. (5) Still suffering from EDP (Era of Deranged Partisanship). (6) The 2020s still likely to roar. (7) Yellen beats Warren. (8) Georgia on my mind, until January 5 election. (9) Mnuchin’s Gambit: check, but not checkmate. (10) T-Fed lives to fight another day. (11) A sea of liquidity. (12) Does the FOMC know that the NY Fed is pegging the bond yield below 1.00%? (13) The post-lockdown recovery remains remarkable. (14) Movie review: “Let Him Go” (+).
Bibbidi Bobbidi Boo
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) The Fairy Godmother is back. (2) Vaccine and Yellen news fuel S&P 500 Energy sector’s top performance so far in November. (3) Global oil production cuts and improvement in demand bringing market back into balance. (4) US companies in the Oil Patch cut costs, merge, or go bankrupt. (5) New Biden administration could shepherd in a return of Iranian production and an emphasis on renewables. (6) Solar just makes sense. (7) New materials could make solar panels far more efficient. (8) A solar panel that works on a cloudy day. (9) Miracle molecules.
The First Thanksgiving Of the Roaring 2020s
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Thank you, thank you, thank you. (2) A cornucopia of vaccines for the holidays. (3) 1914-1920 were dark days indeed. (4) The 1920s was a decade of innovation, productivity, and prosperity preceded by a world war, a pandemic, and a depression. (5) Comparative pandemics. (6) A cornucopia of technological innovations for the 2020s. (7) Calvin Coolidge vs Joe Biden. (8) Raising our earnings estimates and shooting for 4000 on the S&P 500 by the end of 2021. (9) V-shaped earnings recovery. (10) Widespread rebound in the revenues and earnings of the S&P 500 sectors. (11) Net earnings revisions back in positive territory.
Broadening Bull Market
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Much ado about $450 billion. (2) Is T-Fed extinct already? (3) Biden likely to pick a Fed-grown Treasury secretary. (4) Warp Speed is on the fast track. (5) Vaccine could open the door to the Roaring 2020s. (6) Value stocks getting inoculated. (7) SMidCaps outperforming too. (8) Kinetic Energy stocks. (9) US MSCI underperforms rest of world. (10) Are technicals too bullish? (11) Home-buying is booming. (12) New home for the holidays. (13) Wealth inequality hasn’t worsened significantly since 1989. (14) Movie review: “The Crown” (+ + +).
Looking Beyond the Pandemic
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Which underperforming sector this month has some of market’s best-performing industries? Consumer Discretionary. (2) Forward-looking investors see consumers looking forward to fun times, post-pandemic. (3) Kohl’s and TJX show optimism about the future by reinstating dividends. (4) Executives calling on Congress to push through a stimulus package now. (5) Project Warp Speed expands US manufacturing of vaccines and pharmaceuticals. (6) New vaccines based on mRNA save the day and may hold the key to the development of other vaccines and drugs in the future.
The Fed’s Third Mandate
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Tesla is in the fast lane. (2) Back to the Future. (3) T-Fed congratulates the Fed and the Treasury for a job well done. (4) Strong recovery should support valuations, says the Fed. (5) Corporate debt bomb has been detonated, says the Fed. (6) Households are stable, and banks are in good shape too. (7) Non-banks are on regulators’ radar screen. (8) The meaning of “backstop.” (9) Record equity in homes. (10) Millennials have a lot of catching up to do with Baby Boomers and GenXers in homeownership derby.
The Banks Of Last Resort
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) A trillion here, a trillion there adds up to $21.8 trillion. (2) Whatever it takes to “infinity and beyond.” (3) The Fed is playing by the MMT playbook. (4) Is the Fed trying to peg the bond yield below 1.00%? (5) Record-low interest rates fueling housing boom and record corporate bond issuance. (6) A pile of liquidity waiting for vaccine. (7) ECB and BOJ pumping liquidity as fast as the Fed. (8) A synergistic approach to technical and fundamental analysis. (9) Commodity prices continue to recover. (10) The copper/gold ratio is bearish for bonds, increasing odds that Fed will peg yield below 1.00%. (11) Not much more downside for the dollar. (12) Still favoring Stay Home over Go Global.
Biden’s Challenges & Choices
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Another record high. (2) Meet Mr. Gridlock: Joe Manchin, the conservative Democratic senator from West Virginia. (3) No “crazy stuff.” (4) Meet Lael Brainard, the Fed governor who could be the next Treasury secretary. (5) Democrats likely to push Fed to do more if their fiscal agenda is checkmated by Republicans. (6) Fed still has plenty of ammo. (7) Memo to Biden: Trickle-down economics works both ways—spreading pain, not just gain. (8) The rich tend to own S corporations and proprietorships that employ lots of people. (9) Movie review: “The Life Ahead” (-).
Ob-la-di, Ob-la-da
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Life goes on as playing fields shift for the pandemic, the nation, the Industrials sector, and fintech. (2) Financials, Materials, and Industrials pay catch-up. (3) Better earnings getting closer as 2021 nears. (4) Covid-19 and the US-China trade war have manufacturers looking to come home. (5) US manufacturing also benefitting from automation and connections to the cloud. (6) It’s time to pay more attention to fintech companies. (7) Fintech making inroads in personal loans, online banking, and mortgages, with their sights set on credit cards.
It Ain’t Over ’Til It’s Over
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Gridlock isn’t locked in yet. (2) Ray Charles and Chuck Schumer. (3) If the Dems win the two Senate races in Georgia on Jan. 5, a Blue Wave tsunami could still happen. (4) Trump has 70 Days of Revenge if he so chooses. (5) Next shocker: The Durham report? (6) Yogi Berra’s wisdom. (7) Vaccine countdown brings light at the end of the tunnel for pandemic-challenged companies, potentially broadening stock market rally. (8) Breadth of fresh air: The stock market starts rotating from indoors to outdoors. (9) Plenty of room to broaden bull market.
The Distribution of Corporate Equities Among US Households
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Can you hear the roar of the 2020s? (2) Pfizer announces vaccine that is 90% effective. (3) Trump’s Operation Warp Speed is on speed. (4) There are still several important known unknowns about Pfizer’s vaccine. (5) Other vaccines are still in the running. (6) Large Fed research team compiles impressive database on distribution of household wealth. (7) Households own about 65% of corporate equities directly and indirectly. (8) The One Percent holds about 50% of corporate equities and mutual fund shares. (9) Older generations own a larger share of equities than younger ones. (10) Education is a key contributor to financial success.
God Bless James Madison
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Meet the author of the US Constitution. (2) Gridlock by design is driving politicians mad, causing deranged partisanship. (3) Investors have learned to tune out the noise from Washington. (4) Awaiting final vote on gridlock in two January Senate races in Georgia. (5) Less fiscal stimulus and another looming shutdown. (6) Investors happy that Blue Wave agenda probably stymied by gridlock. (7) Still looking like V-shaped recovery in labor market. (8) Productivity growth rebounding in the Roaring 2020s. (9) The productivity-pay gap is a big myth that’s been around too long. (10) Movie review: “The Queen’s Gambit” (+ + +).
Back to the Future
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Refreshed by selloff, tech shares bounce. (2) Semiconductor sales shine in September. (3) China steps on Ant’s IPO dreams. (4) CCP calls for tech independence and a bulked-up military. (5) Pompeo taunts China while traveling through Asia. (6) New competition in green transportation: hydrogen-powered cars and trucks.
World Tour
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) The third wave of the pandemic. (2) Stay Home continues to outperform Go Global. (3) US MSCI forward earnings outperforming the rest. (4) US profit margin well exceeds the rest. (5) US isn’t cheap. S&P 500 Growth is expensive. (6) Forward P/Es of S&P 500 Value and ACW ex-US showing much less divergence. (7) Global economy takes two steps forward, one step back. (8) The Zombie Apocalypse has been averted, so far. (9) Zombies refinancing debt at record-low interest rates get to live to die another day.
Viral Stress Test
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) GDP should fully recover from lockdown recession by end of 2021. (2) The third wave of the pandemic. (3) Credit/debit card spending remains on uptrend. (4) Puzzling strength in Treasury data on individual income tax and payroll tax receipts. (5) Labor compensation recovering. (6) Remarkable rebound in proprietors’ income. (7) Personal saving data suggest first round of fiscal stimulus hasn’t been all spent. (8) Consumer spending on goods at record high, led by housing-related spending. (9) Pandemic-challenged services mostly remain challenged. (10) Can restaurants survive on takeout alone? (11) Housing indicators remain strong.
And the Winner Is . . . ?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Who creates jobs in America? (2) American businesses have been doing well despite Washington’s never-ending meddling. (3) Is gridlock really as bullish as widely perceived? (4) Does Powell matter more than Trump or Biden for stocks? (5) The front-cover curse. (6) Remember the Silent Majority? (7) Two pollsters explain why Trump will win in the Electoral College. (8) The pandemic could cost Biden the White House if enough voters fear he will shut down the economy more than they fear the virus. (9) Polls say Biden-led Blue Wave is likely. (10) How fast will President Biden raise taxes? (11) Civics lesson: The Electoral College. (12) Movie review: “Away” (+).
Trick or Treat?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Markets get spooked. (2) Panic Attack #67 started on September 3 and should end on November 3. (3) Election uncertainty and spiking Covid-19 cases haunt the markets. (4) Markets rotate to risk off and Tech stocks stumble. (5) Next year should bring new fiscal stimulus and easier earnings comparisons. (6) Scientists trying to use Crispr to cure cancer. (7) Bayer is the latest big pharma company to buy into Crispr. (8) PPP loans affect some banks’ financials, but only temporarily.
Leaning Out
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Voom = V-shaped boom. (2) Another round of lockdowns more likely under Biden or Trump? (3) Coming soon: more fiscal stimulus and a vaccine. (4) Regional business surveys strong again in October. (5) Capital spending outlook improving along with durable goods orders. (6) Big drop in the unemployment rate. (7) But people are dropping out of the labor force, especially working-age women. (8) Pandemic creates major challenges for working parents. (9) Moms & dads opting to stay at home with the kids. (10) A day in the life of one of our colleagues.
Who Owns Stocks in America?
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) From V to swoosh? (2) Setbacks on the health front of the world war against the virus. (3) October’s flash PMIs remained strong in US, but weakened in Eurozone. (4) Progress on the vaccine front. (5) We are rooting for the stock market to consolidate, not for another panic attack. (6) A simple question with a complicated answer: Who owns equities? (7) Equities come in assorted varieties: publicly traded, closely held, directly held, and indirectly held. (8) Households have been holding about 60% of all equities in US since early-1980s. (9) Proprietors’ income is comparable to corporate profits. (10) S corporations generate as much pre-tax profits as S&P 500 corporations after taxes. (11) S corporate profits taxed as dividends in personal income. (12) So who owns equities? It’s complicated.
Hot Houses
Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. (1) Fed’s regional surveys remain V-shaped through October. (2) Velocity of money making a comeback. (3) Leading index leading higher. (4) Millennials turning into motivated home buyers. (5) Running out of housing inventory. (6) Existing home prices rising faster than for new ones. (7) Larger homes with backyards are prime properties. (8) Swooshing gasoline usage. (9) Central bankers trying to drown virus in liquidity. (10) Bond Vigilantes are the walking dead. (11) Movie review: “On the Rocks” (+).