FOMC Minutes Monitor

The 9–3 hold with three hawkish dissents is the most fractured and hawkishly skewed vote of the current cycle. The 'will deliver price stability' language was retained, and several…

Core PCE edged down to an estimated 3.3% in June from 3.4% in May, but participants assessed that underlying inflation remained elevated even after excluding tariff-affected and en…

Unemployment held at 4.2% in June, little changed over the past two years, and payroll gains strengthened in H1 2026 well above 2025's pace. Participants assessed labor demand and …

Real GDP growth slowed in Q2, but real private domestic final purchases — a better signal of underlying momentum — picked up and grew faster than GDP. Consumer spending firmed, AI-…

Consumer spending strengthened overall, supported by stock market gains particularly for higher-income households. However, low- and moderate-income households faced increasing str…

Several participants assessed that pass-through of past tariff increases into price levels was largely complete, but recently announced tariffs were expected to add modest addition…

Nominal Treasury yields rose 25–30bp over the intermeeting period, driven by real rate increases, and the dollar edged higher. Equity prices fell marginally but remained near all-t…

Participants judged inflation risks as skewed to the upside, with the possibility of more persistent inflation the dominant concern. The staff also assessed upside inflation risks …

Reserve management purchases continued, with reserves assessed as remaining in the ample range. Most participants commented on balance sheet policy, noting that the task force find…

The 9–3 vote with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan all dissenting for an immediate 25bp hike is the most hawkishly fractured vote of the current cycle, a sharp escalation from June's u…