Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Small Is Beautiful
(1) S&P 1500 is up $16.7 trillion since start of bull run. (2) Small companies have lots of employees. (3) Might small company hiring explain weak productivity? (4) Profits driving business cycle as profitable companies continue to expand payrolls and capacity. (5) Earnings of S&P 400/600 well outpacing S&P 500 earnings. (6) May survey finds small businesses’ earnings improving on balance. (7) Finding qualified applicants for job openings is a major challenge.
Tech Now & Then
(1) The life and death of bulls. (2) Matadors and recessions. (3) An aging bull that remains frisky. (4) Charge of the bullish brigade. (5) Tech now and in 1999/2000. (6) Beware of sectors with too much market cap. (7) Tech’s valuation and LTEG aren’t excessively high. (8) There’s lots of jalapenos in the salsa dip for chips. (9) Semiconductor forward earnings flying with worldwide sales.
White Swans
(1) Bullish chowder. (2) Frothy valuations. (3) Swamp sickness. (4) Betting on downsized Trump agenda. (5) Benchmark model pinpoints next recession in March 2019. (6) NBx2 scenario: No Boom, No Bust! (7) Price inflation is keeping a lid on wage inflation. (8) Are bond investors seeing less growth or less inflation or both? (9) Big Three central bank balance sheets remain ultra-easy, on balance. (10) Fed’s priority is probably to raise rates more before reducing balance sheet. (11) Update of quarterly valuation ratios shows mixed picture.
Beware of Fighting Elephants
(1) Proverbial elephants. (2) Clash of the titans: Amazon vs Walmart. (3) Food at home is over $900 billion industry. (4) Prime service for less-than-prime customers. (5) Food stamps for online groceries. (6) Playing ball with a big elephant. (7) Amazon banning CR*P products. (8) Consumer Staples: Paying up for safety. (9) Beer, cigarettes, and drugs.
All-Consuming Questions
(1) Running out of warm bodies? (2) Three measures of payrolls. (3) One job open for every jobless worker. (4) One-third of small businesses have jobs they can’t fill. (5) Half of small businesses say no qualified candidates for unfilled positions. (6) Wages should be up 3.0%-4.0% rather than 2.5%. (7) Vehicle miles traveled at record high. (8) Gasoline usage falling recently. (9) Has Trump’s “America First” pitch made America last for tourists?
Chirping Canaries
(1) Animal spirits still mostly animated. (2) Hard data remain soft. (3) Home in the range for the S&P 500. (4) Hannibal’s FAANG elephants leading the bulls to new heights. (5) Adding sentinel animals to the zoo. (6) Go Global beating Stay Home so far this year. (7) Solid global PMIs. (8) Lots of happy canaries in Europe and Asia. (9) Global trade growth picking up. (10) Asian exports also showing signs of life. (11) Forward earnings for major overseas MSCI indexes increasingly upbeat.
Hannibal Spirits
(1) Hannibal and his animals. (2) Climb every mountain. (3) Annual meeting of Bahre’s often bearish strategists. (4) Air is getting thin up here. (5) Record net inflows into equity ETFs, while equity mutual funds continue to hemorrhage. (6) White-hot FAANGs. (7) Earned Income Proxy at another record high. (8) Fewer labor force dropouts, a.k.a. NILFs. (9) Baby Boomers were careerists and materialists. Millennials are lifestylists and minimalists. (10) There’s more to life than money. (11) “Get Out” (+).
United Tech, Divided Transports
(1) FAANG and headless headlines. (2) 10 Bennies for 1 Amazon. (3) Amazon is in the wrong aisle. (4) Active managers overweighting FAANG. (5) Tech accounts for a bit more than a fifth of S&P 500 earnings and market-cap shares. (6) Dow Theory remains bullish. (7) Rails are back on fast track. (8) Airlines have lots of passengers they can drag off planes. (9) Trucking industry’s freight tonnage stalled at record high. (10) Truck prices falling.
A Memorable Earnings Season
(1) Seasonal drop, but y/y growth. (2) Forward earnings at record highs. (3) Tax cuts wading through the swamp. (4) Winning streak: Profit margin remains at record high. (5) A traumatic legacy. (6) Resource utilization rate still below previous cyclical peaks. (7) NBx2 scenario: No Boom, No Bust. (8) Double-digit earnings growth for S&P 500 Financials, IT, and Materials. (9) Revenue growth rising along with other measures of economic activity. (10) Aggregate vs per-share growth.
Steady Eddie
(1) Cruising at a safe speed. (2) Real GDP growth looks nice and steady on y/y basis. (3) GDP growth is higher excluding the government. (4) Steady, Fast, and Crazy Eddies. (5) Larry Summers says he told us so. (6) Demography is weighing on working-age population and labor force growth in US. (7) Age wave analysis shows younger workers growing faster. (8) Japan’s death cross. (9) Global trade indicators showing improving economic activity.
Fueled by Apple Juice
(1) The Great Race to be the Apple of the auto industry. (2) How much metal and rubber are in the code? (3) Ford: Hackett’s job as Fields put out to pasture. (4) Andreesen Pac Man Theory of software. (5) Who will be the Nokia of the auto industry? (6) Can we get Trump to pitch for YRI? (7) The best defense is more weapons for US allies. (8) Disappointing budget for US defense spending. (9) Bitcoin’s fans and fiends.
Global Synchronized Moderate Growth
(1) Wish for better earnings has come true. (2) S&P 1500 rising in record territory. (3) S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2018 high and dry. (4) S&P 500/400/600 all had upside earnings hooks during Q1 reporting season. (5) Altogether now. (6) A world of upbeat PMIs. (7) Real GDP tracking 2% in major economies. (8) Germany’s business confidence is soaring. (9) Aging is a drag on growth. (10) Less secular growth until further notice.
(A) Few Differences This Time?
(1) Not all valuation measures are flashing red. (2) Misery Index near previous cyclical lows. (3) Misery-adjusted forward P/E around its mean. (4) Rule of 20 no longer bullish. (5) Buffett isn’t giving much weight to his ratio. (6) Price-to-sales ratio awfully high. (7) Fed Model says stocks cheap compared to bonds. (8) China’s demography remains bullish for growth. (9) China’s population growth slows. (10) But China’s rural-to-urban migration continues apace.
Where Is This Leading?
(1) The latest panic attack lasted one day. (2) Keeping a diary of anxiety attacks. (3) VIX taking regular doses of Valium to stay calm. (4) Pills for the President. (5) One monthly and two weekly LEIs all at record highs. (6) CEI benchmark model sees next recession starting March 2019. (7) CEI confirming 2% trend growth in real GDP. (8) Resource Utilization Rate and LEI/CEI ratio are bullish for profit margin. (9) Yield curve signaling neither boom nor bust. (10) NY & Philly Fed surveys showing animal spirits remain spirited.
Fall from Grace
(1) Yesterday’s fall. (2) Seeking impeachable offenses. (3) Loose Lips Donald. (4) White House busy playing whack-a-mole all day. (5) Keeping targets for S&P, but swapping 2017 & 2018 for earnings. (6) Adam & Eve & Trump. (7) The Swamp of Eden. (8) Tech has been chosen for great things. (9) Software for the cloud. (10) Chips for the cloud.
Back in the Cage?
(1) Swamps, zoos, and Washington, D.C. (2) City slicker in White House doesn’t know much about swamps. (3) Less mojo in soft data, which are mostly holding onto post-election bounces. (4) Economic Surprise Index showing weaker-than-expected hard data. (5) Key rail and truck gauges have stalled. (6) Business loans rise to record high despite slow pace of growth. (7) Plenty of good news in earnings. (8) Smooth sailing for stocks in the swamp, so far.
US Underperforming
(1) Dipping vs. plunging offshore. (2) Go with the flows for now. (3) US fund flows can’t explain US underperformance. (4) Global investors must be bullish on global growth, and betting on it with cheaper foreign stocks. (5) Bullish on a world that can deal with gradual Fed tightening. (6) Overseas forward earnings turning up so far this year. (7) Too many eggs in Emerging Markets MSCI basket? (8) The case for actively managing an EM portfolio. (9) Fragile Five are less fragile now.
Death by Amazon
(1) Dropping anchors. (2) Piranhas like fresh water and red meat. (3) Reading the business obituaries. (4) Eating someone else’s lunch. (5) Amazon expanding C2B and moving into B2B. (6) Media man says Amazon is “ridiculously scary.” (7) Clothes on demand. (8) A deflationary cloud. (9) Death by Amazon is a spreading plague. (10) Bricks-and-mortar getting hammered in stock market. (11) Buffett, saying Amazon hurting IBM, cuts his position by 1/3. (12) Business demand for computers has been flat after AWS opened the cloud. (13) Movie review: “The Dinner” (- -).
On the Road Again
(1) Leaving home. (2) Time for fun. (3) Cruising for dollars. (4) Spending on lasting memories on the high seas. (5) More Asians with wanderlust. (6) The hotels are occupied. (7) Having magical days at the theme parks. (8) More CEOs talking about wage pressures. (9) Labor shortages. (10) Peak plastic? (11) India going from cash to mobile pay. (12) Selfie Pay: Look into my eye.
Outperforming
(1) Ka-ching: Equity ETF inflows at record high. (2) Double-digit gains for S&P 500/400/600 since Election Day. (3) Analysts see double-digit earnings growth in 2017 and 2018. (4) Significant upside hooks during Q1 earnings season. (5) Alpha, beta, and SmallCaps. (6) Buddy, can you spare some time (to work)? (7) Europe is hot, hot, hot. (8) Eurozone’s economic indicators are strong. (9) IMF recommends actively managing EM portfolios, and provides investment guidelines.
China Down
(1) Bulls and bears in china shop. (2) China’s credit tightening is #1 concern currently. (3) Chinese stocks mixed. (4) Chinese officials go to war against shadow banking system. (5) Are Wealth Management Products weapons of mass financial destruction? (6) Lots of yuan in grey areas. (7) Don’t trust entrusted investments. (8) Shadow banks account for almost 1/3 of “social financing.” (9) China isn’t as fragile as some fear. (10) Plenty of growth in exports and imports. (11) Capital outflows still a problem.
Bali Hai
(1) Bond Vigilantes Model too bearish on nominal GDP. (2) Ignore q/q real GDP. Focus on stronger y/y comps. (3) Variations on a theme: Lower-for-longer growth, no-boom-no-bust, inflation is dead. (4) FOMC says Q1 slowdown was temporary. (5) Welcome to Bali Hai, with ideal weather conditions for investors. (6) Just beware of the dormant volcano. (7) Wage and price inflation remain as calm as the trade winds on a South Pacific island. (8) Earned Income Proxy is smoking. (9) Storm clouds in the commodity pits? (10) Chinese officials pumping the brakes while stepping on accelerator.
Where Credit Is Due
(1) Coffee, tea, or plastic? (2) A flight with no fights. (3) Auto and student loans leading consumer credit to new highs. Revolving credit lagging. (4) Consumer delinquencies rising back to old normal. (5) No signs of trouble in debt-servicing ratio. (6) Dearth of deadbeats. (7) Payments processing is a great business. (8) But beware of the Great Disruptor. (9) Some cracks in commercial real estate’s foundation. (10) Want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge and get a free taxi medallion?
Seinfeld’s Market
(1) Jerry & George pitch a sitcom about nothing. (2) The Trauma of 2008 may be finally wearing off. (3) Counting anxiety attacks. (4) Fully invested bears are less panic prone. (5) Other than earnings rising, nothing much is happening for stock investors to get excited about one way or the other. (6) In case you missed them: Recent commotions in Greece, China, and Washington were largely ignored. (7) Breadth remains bullish. (8) Are the rich paying their fair share of taxes?
Rolling Recessions & Recoveries
(1) The long good buy. (2) The oil industry’s rolling recession has come and gone. (3) Texas and North Dakota are not the only oil-producing states. (4) Warehouse clubs, super-stores, and online retailers killing department stores. (5) The auto industry may be next on the disassembly line. (6) Another happy hook for another earnings season. (7) Broad-based earnings recovery. (8) Q1 consumer spending disappointing, but household formation is looking better. (9) Increase in households led by owner-occupiers rather than renters. (10) Record-high standard of living for average American household.