Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Stocks Not Too Hot
(1) Valuation question hanging over the bull. (2) Taking sides with and against Goldilocks. (3) CAPE fear: Prof. Shiller alarms, while Prof. Siegel assures. (4) Rule of 20 and the Misery-Adjusted P/E. (5) The S&P 500 real earnings yield shows stocks are fairly valued. (6) Census Bureau updates its senseless measure of household income. (7) It was up a lot during 2015 and 2016, but is only just above 2000 level. (8) More nonfamily households (who earn less than families) exaggerating income stagnation and inequality. (9) Real consumption per household shows significant increase in standard of living.
What Is Real?
(1) Reality: There’s an app for that. (2) From X to AR. (3) Anemojis are coming to get you. (4) The Big Apple’s market cap. (5) Hurricanes and bond yields clobber Financials, though asset managers are still standing. (6) Temer-ity is on the loose in Brazil. (7) Brazil’s corrupt government spreads the wealth. (8) Brazil’s recession is over. (9) Mexico’s fiesta is still going on.
Another Seinfeld Episode
(1) Less panic-prone bull. (2) Seinfeld stock market happiest when nothing happens. (3) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator remains bullish. (4) S&P 500/400/600 forward revenues moving forward to new highs. (5) JOLTS reports record number of job openings, matching number of unemployed workers. (6) More job quitters confirm tight labor market. (7) So why aren’t wages rising faster? (8) Some quitters, such as Baby Boomers, may be retiring rather than moving to better-paying jobs.
Over There & Over Here
(1) While the Atlantic Ocean is getting warmer, stocks are getting hotter. (2) Venturing abroad. (3) The weak dollar has contributed greatly to outperformance of Go Global vs. Stay Home this year. (4) Boosting global growth: Lower oil prices, European immigration, Chinese bank loans. (5) Industrial production making record highs in Germany. (6) Chinese using more electricity. (7) Global revenues and earnings outlook looks upbeat to industry analysts around the world.
The Jokers Are Wild
(1) Meetings in Chicago and Toronto. (2) Shuffling the deck of cards again. (3) Upping the ante on the Three Deuces scenario. (4) The bond market draws a Joker. (5) The joke on the consensus forecast would be a late-cycle boom. (6) Contrary instincts on high alert. (7) The price of oil should be soaring along with other commodity prices as the dollar sinks, but it isn’t doing so. (8) Stocks are flying in emerging markets. (9) Putting it all together: Noninflationary global boom overseas with slow growth in the US. (10) A winning hand for stocks. (11) The wrath of J.Law and Mother Nature.
Healthy Returns
(1) Biotechs have been taking good care of investors this year. (2) More FDA approvals help. (3) Drugs are increasingly more specialized, treating fewer people at higher prices. (4) T-cells on speed to the rescue. (5) Drug companies buying drugs. (6) Altering genes. (7) Pharmas lagging Biotechs. (8) Chinese fire drill for cryptocurrencies.
H-Bomb Ultimatum
(1) Push comes to shove. (2) How to deal with a pesky saber-rattling brat with nukes. (3) Cruising for a bruising. (4) Two options for getting China to solve the problem. (5) Trade war beats WWIII. (6) Geopolitical crises matter to stocks when they threaten economy. (7) Be ready for trouble. (8) ETFs can grease melt-ups and meltdowns. (9) Equity ETFs still attracting lots of money. (10) Brainard wonders why inflation is disconnected from unemployment. (11) We wonder if she has ever ordered from Amazon. (12) Fed likely to hold off on rate hike.
Back to School
(1) Good summer for stocks and bonds. (2) Explosive domestic political tensions. Boiling geopolitics. (3) US growth on steady course. (4) Capital equipment spending in record territory. (5) M-PMI remains strong despite weak auto sales. (6) Global economic warming attributable to benefits of cheaper oil. (7) Global “oil tax” cut by 50% since mid-2014. (8) Lots of happy numbers in Europe, China, and Japan. (9) Movie review: “Tulip Fever” (- - -).
Store Wars
(1) New age for supermarkets. (2) From King Kullen to Amazon. (3) Clash of the Titans: Sam vs Alexa. (4) Amazon is subduing inflation and frustrating Fed’s inflation target practice. (5) Google teams up with Wal-Mart. (6) Kiosks are the new fast food takeout window. (7) Amazon has the Cloud advantage. (8) India’s manufacturing takes a hit. (9) More bad loans in India. (10) Capital inflows still strong for India.
Tariffying
(1) Space Race. (2) Mail order rockets. (3) Li’l Kim is Rocket Boy. (4) Trump is fighting Kim’s missiles with tariff threats on China. (5) Like Starship Enterprise, S&P 500 flying into uncharted space. (6) Our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator showing plenty of solid rocket fuel. (7) Our Boom-Bust Barometer is going vertical. (8) Consumer confidence indicators justify high P/Es and suggest lower unemployment rate ahead. (9) Despite plentiful jobs, wage inflation remains subdued.
Theatre of the Absurd
(1) Godot was a junkie. (2) If life is meaningless, what’s the point of seeing a play? (3) Lucky was lucky not to have any expectations. (4) Theatre of the Absurd now playing in DC. (5) Existential crisis: Trump’s tax plan doesn’t exist. (6) Untouchables vs dynamic scoring. (7) Medicaid has turned into a big drug dealer. (8) Millennials coming out of their parents’ caves to buy their own caves. (9) Janet Yellen vs Jeff Bezos.
Poker Game
(1) California dreaming. (2) Tuning out Trump, and all the other noise from Washington. (3) Four Deuces scenario would be a winning hand for stocks. (4) If Republicans fail to play their Trump card on tax reform, they could lose the game. (5) The stakes exceed $1 trillion in tax expenditures. (6) Repatriated earnings would raise the ante for a melt-up. (7) Recalling the 1987 game: How a big loss can be followed by a huge win.
Material Improvement
(1) Bears shouldn’t take comfort in small-cap underperformance ytd, which may simply reflect valuation correction after Trump bump. (2) Jackie digs deep into the Materials world. (3) Why are metals so strong? (4) Mining companies are digging up profits again.
Out West & Down South
(1) Tooling around La La Land with a Klingon at the wheel. (2) Hollywood shake-up: talent and consumers are kings and queens. (3) Off-the-charts demand for new content sends competition soaring. (4) The next-Netflix wannabes include Apple. (5) Old studio “suits” learn new trick: stream direct to consumers. (6) Netflix and Amazon stocks amply valued for heady growth prospects. (7) Mexico is on a roll, with 16 quarters of GDP growth and stocks up 30% ytd. (8) Let the NAFTA talks begin!
Après L’Eclipse
(1) Hemingway on life’s delusions: “Isn’t it pretty to think so?” (2) The hard-nosed bull says: “Ignore the bearish omens.” (3) The Hindenburg Omen is back. Is it bullish or bearish when it coincides with a total solar eclipse? (4) Chart watchers looking for trouble. (5) Eclipses come and go, while the sun always remains hot and bright. (6) S&P 500/400/600 forward earnings suggests Q3 earnings season will be upbeat. (7) Earnings hooks sighted during Q2. (8) Menu options for 2018 earnings depend on tax rate.
Eclipse
(1) Look up in the sky! It’s a total eclipse of the sun! (2) P/Es aren’t totally eclipsing Es. (3) Fed officials talking more about financial stability. (4) Yellen’s swan song? (5) Fed more worried about bubble in bonds than in stocks. (6) Fed officials ponder why Phillips Curve Model isn’t working. (7) Q2 earnings at record high. (8) Q2 profit margin at record high, refusing to revert to its mean. (9) Valuation measures back to record highs. (10) Movie review: “Wind River” (+ +).
Curbed & Unleashed Exuberance
(1) On Target. (2) Shocking carnage. (3) Same old over-stored story. (4) The 800-pound gorilla. (5) Closing for good could be good for retailing. (6) Can Amazon continue to amaze? (7) Bubbles always start tiny. (8) SPACulators: Send us money so we can invest it for you as we see fit. (9) Crypto currencies are hot because they are issued in limited supplies by no shortage of crypto companies.
Pay Day
(1) Consumers are earning money and spending it. (2) Real retail sales are really strong. (3) GDPNow now at 3.7%. (4) Hits & misses: Yellen’s 3%-4% wage inflation target. (5) Comparing AHE, WGT, and ECI measures. (6) Silver Tsunami of retiring Baby Boomers weighing on average wage measures. (7) Keeping track of individuals’ wages.
Global Rounds
(1) This bull gets reenergized after it stumbles. (2) On a global basis, the P/E is 16.0, which isn’t extremely high. (3) Global sectors show widespread strength in earnings. (4) Global PMIs signal solid growth. (5) Measures of world exports and production are upbeat. (6) Lots of oompah in German business confidence and retail sales. (7) Usually led by exports, Germany and Japan showing surprising strength in domestic demand. (8) China is growing without fanfare. (9) Puzzle: US income tax receipts weak, despite strong jobs growth. (10) Spotting fewer autos on railcars.
Inflation: Ghost Stories
(1) Hurricane season. (2) More storms than usual. (3) Latest count: 57 panic attacks. (4) Stock market could have a melt-up if a nuclear meltdown is averted. (5) Calendar and numericalogical curses for stocks. (6) The Bay of a Pig Scenario. (7) Latest round of disinflation just temporary or more of the same secular trend? (8) Yellen is still waiting for Phillips to show up. (9) Sticky inflation running around 2.0%. (10) Lots of price indicators. (11) Movie review: “The Big Sick” (+).
Fast & Furious
(1) Pushing and shoving with Lil’ Kim. (2) Two wild and crazy fearless leaders. (3) No fast and furious reaction from the stock market. (4) Real world target practice for THAAD? (5) Reviewing the track record of the misery-adjusted forward P/E. (6) Americans like fixer-uppers almost as much as they like zombies. (7) Life’s sweet for homebuilders. (8) Semiconductors are looking chipper. (9) Hotels are packed, but Marriott says it’s hard to raise room rates.
Four Deuces Scenario
(1) From three deuces to four of them. (2) You’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em. (3) Misery Index falling along with jobless rate, leaving more room for P/E to rise and remain fairly valued. (4) The long good buy scenario. (5) Record job openings suggests economy at full employment. (6) Small business owners looking for help, but can’t find qualified people. (7) The best or the worst of times? (8) Income stagnation is a big urban legend.
Resolving Conundrums
(1) Revenues are looking up. (2) Mid-single-digit growth rates for revenues. (3) Slicing and dicing with and without energy. (4) Employment data suggest stronger growth than wages and salaries. (5) Why isn’t demand side of labor market paying more for workers, while the supply side isn’t demanding more for wages? (6) Global competition keeping a lid on prices, which is keeping a lid on wages. (7) Median wages rising faster than average ones. (8) Real hourly pay at record high resolves one conundrum in the labor market.
Lil’ Kim & Big THAAD
(1) Geopolitical crises tend to be buying opportunities for stock investors. (2) Next stock market crisis more likely to be internal than external. (3) Still rooting for the long good buy. (4) Worrying about a melt-up/meltdown. (5) 1987 all over again? (6) The market has chosen to tune out the swamp people. (7) Fewer negative surprises. (8) US exports set a record. (9) Frackers making America great again. (10) Wage indicators are better than wage income. (11) Taking Lil’ Kim seriously. (12) THAAD says, “Make my day!” (13) Movie review: “Detroit” (+ +).
Sangria Summer
(1) Tipping point. (2) Raving about Tesla. (3) Big frunk. (4) Tesla’s competitors getting charged up too. (5) Banning diesel. (6) Auto stocks stalling along with sales. (7) Eurozone heating up this summer. (8) Spain firing on all cylinders. (9) Tourists are flooding Iberian Peninsula. (10) Upgrading Portugal. (11) PIIGS can fly!