Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Material Improvement
(1) Bears shouldn’t take comfort in small-cap underperformance ytd, which may simply reflect valuation correction after Trump bump. (2) Jackie digs deep into the Materials world. (3) Why are metals so strong? (4) Mining companies are digging up profits again.
Out West & Down South
(1) Tooling around La La Land with a Klingon at the wheel. (2) Hollywood shake-up: talent and consumers are kings and queens. (3) Off-the-charts demand for new content sends competition soaring. (4) The next-Netflix wannabes include Apple. (5) Old studio “suits” learn new trick: stream direct to consumers. (6) Netflix and Amazon stocks amply valued for heady growth prospects. (7) Mexico is on a roll, with 16 quarters of GDP growth and stocks up 30% ytd. (8) Let the NAFTA talks begin!
Après L’Eclipse
(1) Hemingway on life’s delusions: “Isn’t it pretty to think so?” (2) The hard-nosed bull says: “Ignore the bearish omens.” (3) The Hindenburg Omen is back. Is it bullish or bearish when it coincides with a total solar eclipse? (4) Chart watchers looking for trouble. (5) Eclipses come and go, while the sun always remains hot and bright. (6) S&P 500/400/600 forward earnings suggests Q3 earnings season will be upbeat. (7) Earnings hooks sighted during Q2. (8) Menu options for 2018 earnings depend on tax rate.
Eclipse
(1) Look up in the sky! It’s a total eclipse of the sun! (2) P/Es aren’t totally eclipsing Es. (3) Fed officials talking more about financial stability. (4) Yellen’s swan song? (5) Fed more worried about bubble in bonds than in stocks. (6) Fed officials ponder why Phillips Curve Model isn’t working. (7) Q2 earnings at record high. (8) Q2 profit margin at record high, refusing to revert to its mean. (9) Valuation measures back to record highs. (10) Movie review: “Wind River” (+ +).
Curbed & Unleashed Exuberance
(1) On Target. (2) Shocking carnage. (3) Same old over-stored story. (4) The 800-pound gorilla. (5) Closing for good could be good for retailing. (6) Can Amazon continue to amaze? (7) Bubbles always start tiny. (8) SPACulators: Send us money so we can invest it for you as we see fit. (9) Crypto currencies are hot because they are issued in limited supplies by no shortage of crypto companies.
Pay Day
(1) Consumers are earning money and spending it. (2) Real retail sales are really strong. (3) GDPNow now at 3.7%. (4) Hits & misses: Yellen’s 3%-4% wage inflation target. (5) Comparing AHE, WGT, and ECI measures. (6) Silver Tsunami of retiring Baby Boomers weighing on average wage measures. (7) Keeping track of individuals’ wages.
Global Rounds
(1) This bull gets reenergized after it stumbles. (2) On a global basis, the P/E is 16.0, which isn’t extremely high. (3) Global sectors show widespread strength in earnings. (4) Global PMIs signal solid growth. (5) Measures of world exports and production are upbeat. (6) Lots of oompah in German business confidence and retail sales. (7) Usually led by exports, Germany and Japan showing surprising strength in domestic demand. (8) China is growing without fanfare. (9) Puzzle: US income tax receipts weak, despite strong jobs growth. (10) Spotting fewer autos on railcars.
Inflation: Ghost Stories
(1) Hurricane season. (2) More storms than usual. (3) Latest count: 57 panic attacks. (4) Stock market could have a melt-up if a nuclear meltdown is averted. (5) Calendar and numericalogical curses for stocks. (6) The Bay of a Pig Scenario. (7) Latest round of disinflation just temporary or more of the same secular trend? (8) Yellen is still waiting for Phillips to show up. (9) Sticky inflation running around 2.0%. (10) Lots of price indicators. (11) Movie review: “The Big Sick” (+).
Fast & Furious
(1) Pushing and shoving with Lil’ Kim. (2) Two wild and crazy fearless leaders. (3) No fast and furious reaction from the stock market. (4) Real world target practice for THAAD? (5) Reviewing the track record of the misery-adjusted forward P/E. (6) Americans like fixer-uppers almost as much as they like zombies. (7) Life’s sweet for homebuilders. (8) Semiconductors are looking chipper. (9) Hotels are packed, but Marriott says it’s hard to raise room rates.
Four Deuces Scenario
(1) From three deuces to four of them. (2) You’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em. (3) Misery Index falling along with jobless rate, leaving more room for P/E to rise and remain fairly valued. (4) The long good buy scenario. (5) Record job openings suggests economy at full employment. (6) Small business owners looking for help, but can’t find qualified people. (7) The best or the worst of times? (8) Income stagnation is a big urban legend.
Resolving Conundrums
(1) Revenues are looking up. (2) Mid-single-digit growth rates for revenues. (3) Slicing and dicing with and without energy. (4) Employment data suggest stronger growth than wages and salaries. (5) Why isn’t demand side of labor market paying more for workers, while the supply side isn’t demanding more for wages? (6) Global competition keeping a lid on prices, which is keeping a lid on wages. (7) Median wages rising faster than average ones. (8) Real hourly pay at record high resolves one conundrum in the labor market.
Lil’ Kim & Big THAAD
(1) Geopolitical crises tend to be buying opportunities for stock investors. (2) Next stock market crisis more likely to be internal than external. (3) Still rooting for the long good buy. (4) Worrying about a melt-up/meltdown. (5) 1987 all over again? (6) The market has chosen to tune out the swamp people. (7) Fewer negative surprises. (8) US exports set a record. (9) Frackers making America great again. (10) Wage indicators are better than wage income. (11) Taking Lil’ Kim seriously. (12) THAAD says, “Make my day!” (13) Movie review: “Detroit” (+ +).
Sangria Summer
(1) Tipping point. (2) Raving about Tesla. (3) Big frunk. (4) Tesla’s competitors getting charged up too. (5) Banning diesel. (6) Auto stocks stalling along with sales. (7) Eurozone heating up this summer. (8) Spain firing on all cylinders. (9) Tourists are flooding Iberian Peninsula. (10) Upgrading Portugal. (11) PIIGS can fly!
Call of the Wild
(1) Raising odds of the Melt-Up scenario. (2) A dog named "Buck." (3) Klondike Gold Rush in stock market. (4) Going feral. (5) Fidelity cutting fees, while Schwab opens lots of accounts. (6) Swamped by another fiscal cliffhanger? (7) M-PMI and weak dollar are bullish for revenues. (8) Can the Fed hit a bullseye on inflation target? (9) Sticky CPI suggests that underlying inflation is higher than shown by PCED.
Money Talks
(1) Sleepless in New Haven. (2) Getting a majority vote. (3) Too many bulls again? (4) Equity ETFs: The new black hole? (5) No need for a sales pitch as bullish ETF investors come charging through the doors. (6) Global equity ETFs on a roll. (7) Much of US stocks’ underperformance is due to the weaker dollar. (8) Fed Vice Chair Fischer on stage with same act on real interest rates. (9) Might rapid technological innovation explain weakness in productivity and capital spending?
2-2-2 Scenario
(1) Time to reminisce about old times. (2) On the mark. (3) Tom Hanks and Da Vinci. (4) 666: Permutations and combinations of a devilish number. (5) More on the 2-2-2 scenario. (6) Productivity and labor force trends argue for low secular growth. (7) Shooting for 2700 on S&P 500 by mid-2018. (8) Speaking of old times: Will it soon be 1987 all over again? (9) Movie Review: “Atomic Blonde” (+).
Shovel-Ready Industrials
(1) Tale of two industrial companies. (2) Purchasing managers are purchasing. (3) Good vibes from the commodity pits and the forex markets for Industrials. (4) Low-octane fuel. (5) Cat is a tiger. (6) Boeing is flying high. (7) Not much drive among auto manufacturers.
Earnings-Led Melt-Up?
(1) Earnings trump worries, including Trump. (2) Nothing to fear but nothing to fear. (3) Stock prices rising along with earnings. (4) Consumer confidence survey confirms that life is good, and the labor market has plenty of job openings. (5) Germany having Oktoberfest in July. (6) Frictional unemployment in the US. (7) Excluding retiring seniors and studying juniors, there isn’t much slack left in US labor market.
Go With the Capital Flows
(1) Dollar moved down as global economy was moving on up. (2) Dollar peaked after Trump won and before latest two Fed rate hikes. (3) Draghi and Kuroda are more dovish than Brainard and Yellen. (4) Our international capital flows proxy turned less bullish for the dollar last year. (5) International reserves holdings by central banks also a good barometer for the dollar. (6) Draghi has done whatever it takes, yet the euro is strengthening again. (7) Are emerging markets less prone to Fed tightening tantrums? (8) Oil and the dollar divergence is unusual.
Summertime Lullaby
(1) Porgy, Bess, and all that bullish jazz. (2) Bull to bear: “Hush up, little baby.” (3) Summertime, and the bears are still hibernating. (4) The 2-by-2-by-2 scenario is the consensus. (5) Worry list: Central banks’ balance sheets, reflation, and the swamp. (6) ECB and BOJ not rushing to normalize. (7) S&P 500 Financials stall on flatter yield curve, lack of volatility for trading desks, and lackluster loans. (8) Movie Review: “Dunkirk” (+ + +).
Cashless
(1) Can you say “goodbye to cash” in Swedish? (2) “Swish,” “zelle,” or “venmo” it to pay by phone. (3) Fewer hold-ups. (4) Cybercriminals cashing in. (5) It’s gloomy in India. (6) Services rain on India’s agricultural parade. (7) India MSCI not cheap. (8) Modi’s motives are questionable. (9) Cow vigilantes. (10) Economy decelerating in India. (11) RBI under pressure to cut rates as inflation plummets.
Gray Swans
(1) The Nirvana scenario. (2) Taleb’s birds. (3) Black Swans don’t have to be bad. (4) An industry of bird watchers. (5) Is predicting Black Swan events an oxymoron? (6) There are a few Gray Swans out there. (7) The Grayest Swan is a melt-up. (8) Healthcare reform is sinking in the swamp. (9) Are consumers retrenching or not? (10) A primer on ETFs and their potential contribution to a meltdown.
Orient Express
(1) Stir-frying China’s economic growth with lots of debt. (2) Don’t bet against a billion people. (3) China following Japan down the same road. (4) Chinese economy getting Botoxed as it ages and slows. (5) Premier Xi doing more of the same. (6) Social financing and bank lending at record highs. (7) A bit of good news: Shadow banking doing less of the lending, and capital outflows slowing. (8) Aging is a drag on China. (9) Improving margins.
Bulls Flying with Doves
(1) Brainard: Leading the dovish pack. (2) Melting up with the doves. (3) Dollar matters to the Fed for a change. (4) Flatter Phillips curve. (5) Still undershooting inflation target. (6) Balancing rate hikes with balance-sheet tapering. (7) Brainard and Yellen agree that neutral federal funds rate is in sight. (8) More Fed fairy dust charges up bull again. (9) Swan song. (10) Not surprisingly, Fed favors discretion over rules.
There’s an App for That
(1) Living in 3D. (2) Want to live in a pretzel? (3) Replacing construction workers with printers. (4) 3D buildings going up in Dubai, China, and Mars. (5) Build your fast-drying home in a day. (6) Pain won’t go away for retailers. (7) Pigs selling discounted lipstick. (9) Bezos and Alexa going after the Geek Squad. (10) Shorting malls is easy: There’s an ETF for that. (11) Make Brazil hot again!