Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
On a Winning Streak
(1) Germany and South Korea chirping a happy song. (2) South Korean exports soaring. (3) German new orders at record high. (4) Five reasons why the global economy is booming. (5) German domestic orders for consumer goods confirming that mass migration is boosting growth. (6) Go Global beating Stay Home in dollars more than in local currencies. (7) Will winning streak last for Emerging Markets?
FOMO & MAMU
(1) Deep in the heart of Texas. (2) From fiscal cliff to anxiety fatigue. (3) Nothing to fear but nothing to fear. (4) Mother of All Melt-Ups if Fear Of Missing Out takes hold. (5) It’s still Nirvana now, but raising odds of Melt-Up then Meltdown scenarios. (6) Templeton’s four seasons of a bull market. (7) No corrections during fourth (euphoria) phase so far. (8) Extreme greed readings. (9) Are SmallCaps frothy?
Gushing Over Global Growth
(1) Five reasons why global growth is so good. (2) Global Growth Barometer has a sunny disposition. (3) On the margin, global oil demand is rising a bit faster than supplies. (4) Three geopolitical hot spots for oil. (5) US frackers should be ordering more rigs soon. (6) Electric cars are heading our way. (7) Lots of big gains underneath surface of this year’s bull market. (8) Aerospace & Defense flying too high?
Morning Briefing 2017-10-04
A of this Morning Briefing is also available. (1) Crib sheet for unwritten plan. (2) Campaign promises vs. White House “framework.” (3) Hit to revenues offset by implicit elimination of state & local tax deduction. (4) There’s a new fourth tax rate to keep tax reform progressive. (5) Pass-throughs should still get a big windfall. (6) Corporate tax rate: 15% has been raised to non-negotiable 20%. (7) Mnuchin says it will pay for itself. (8) Repatriation story just got more complicated. (9) Border tax is dead.
Thanks a Trillion!
(1) Several explanations for why the global economy is doing so well. (2) Central bankers remain on easing streak. (3) Benefit of lower oil prices flowing through now. (4) Immigration usually boosts growth. (5) Big positive wealth effect from global bull market in stocks. (6) Trillions here and there adding up to serious money. (7) Happy canaries in S. Korean coal mines. (8) Eurozone economic sentiment auguring better growth. (9) US M-PMI and key components all above 60.0. (10) Forward revenues and earnings rebounding smartly overseas.
Thanks a Million!
(1) While Buffett’s ratio is sounding the alarm, Buffett is sounding bullish. (2) Shorting America has been a loser’s game. (3) We can all be millionaires in 100 years. (4) CAGR is the 8th wonder of the world, though less so after inflation. (5) Adjusted for inflation, DJIA provides 3% CAGR, a bit less than S&P 500’s real earnings yield. (6) Beware the front-cover curse. (7) Trump’s tax plan revives animal spirits in the stock market, especially among SmallCaps. (8) Hard to find devils in Trump plan without any details. (9) Both fundamentals and technicals are bullish for stocks. (10) Movie review: “American Made” (+ + +).
Good Rotations
(1) Remember risk-off/risk-on? (2) Follow the changing leaders. (3) Vertical integration creating more competition in semiconductor space. (4) Everybody wants to make designer chips. (5) GPUs for AR, VR, and AI. (6) Law of supply and demand pushing up some wages. (7) Fresh air in Beijing during mid-October. (8) China’s strong man will get five more years in office, guaranteed. (9) China’s economy continues to roll along thanks to lots of debt, which might be restructured into equities.
Keep On Trucking
(1) The Fed cops. (2) What’s the speed limit? (3) The 2% stall speed is the cruising speed. (4) Private-sector GDP cruising along at 3%. (5) Productivity and working-age population cruising at crawl speed. (6) Underwhelming potential. (7) Truck traffic is barreling down the highway. (8) West Coast ports reporting record activity. (9) Intermodel railcar loadings chugging along. (10) Railcar loadings of motor vehicles continue to weaken. (11) The eternal chancellor wins again. Now what?
Inflation Mystery Solved
(1) Janet in Wonderland. (2) There’s no Phillips curve on the other side of the looking glass. (3) BIS chief economist Claudio Borio’s speech affirms my 40 years of work on disinflation. (4) Fed’s top economist says that inflation is a mystery. (5) Borio tells central bankers to stop targeting inflation. (6) Inflation isn’t just a monetary phenomenon. (7) Real forces related to globalization, technology, and demography can drive inflation too. (8) Global slack matters. (9) Technology disrupts pricing power. (10) What if the neutral real interest rate does not exist? (11) Dog barking at a mirror. (12) Bottom line: Raise interest rates to stop borrowing binges, stock market melt-ups, and a debt trap.
Bulls Flying With Doves
(1) Hyperbole for our times. (2) A bull for all seasons. (3) Serious money. (4) Slicing and dicing valuation some more. (5) Stocks overvalued based on ratios of market cap to GNP and to sales. (6) Stocks fairly valued based on inflation-adjusted earnings yields using S&P and NIPA data. (7) Tobin’s q isn’t bearish so far. (8) Yellen’s fashion statement. (9) Yellen lets it slip: She is (probably) leaving. (10) Fed on course of gradual monetary normalization with or without Yellen. (11) Movie review: “Viceroy’s House” (+ + +).
Chips & Bricks
(1) Here’s to you, Mrs. Robinson. (2) Semi whisper. (3) There’s a GPU for that. (4) Nvidia is winning the games. (5) The brain behind AI. (6) The chip behind the wheel. (7) Beyond beds, baths, and toys. (7) Do you want a side of mortar with that online order?
A Trillion Here, A Trillion There
(1) Dirksen’s “real money” was in billions. Now it’s trillions. (2) Policy-making trillionaires remain bullish for asset prices. (3) Less bang per buck, euro, yen, and yuan. (4) China’s monetary extravaganza. (5) US government redistributing lots of money. (6) Three central bank amigos on major liquidity binge. (7) Stocks on central bank high. (8) Bye-bye, buybacks? (9) The corporate finance buyback model favors more buybacks. (10) Bond borrowing binge continues. (11) More upside for stock valuations based on corporate bond yield.
On the Margins
(1) Contrary to the bearish script. (2) Still waiting for the first part of the boom-bust cycle. (3) S&P 500 profit margin at record high. (4) NIPA profit margin is down, but a long way from reverting to the mean. (5) The Trauma of 2008 explains a lot. (6) Containing costs remains a top priority. (7) Disruptive technologies posing existential threats. (8) Forward profit margins of S&P 500 and its 11 sectors all exceed S&P 400/600 comparable series. (9) It’s good to be big. (10). It’s good to have a global business.
Stocks Not Too Hot
(1) Valuation question hanging over the bull. (2) Taking sides with and against Goldilocks. (3) CAPE fear: Prof. Shiller alarms, while Prof. Siegel assures. (4) Rule of 20 and the Misery-Adjusted P/E. (5) The S&P 500 real earnings yield shows stocks are fairly valued. (6) Census Bureau updates its senseless measure of household income. (7) It was up a lot during 2015 and 2016, but is only just above 2000 level. (8) More nonfamily households (who earn less than families) exaggerating income stagnation and inequality. (9) Real consumption per household shows significant increase in standard of living.
What Is Real?
(1) Reality: There’s an app for that. (2) From X to AR. (3) Anemojis are coming to get you. (4) The Big Apple’s market cap. (5) Hurricanes and bond yields clobber Financials, though asset managers are still standing. (6) Temer-ity is on the loose in Brazil. (7) Brazil’s corrupt government spreads the wealth. (8) Brazil’s recession is over. (9) Mexico’s fiesta is still going on.
Another Seinfeld Episode
(1) Less panic-prone bull. (2) Seinfeld stock market happiest when nothing happens. (3) Fundamental Stock Market Indicator remains bullish. (4) S&P 500/400/600 forward revenues moving forward to new highs. (5) JOLTS reports record number of job openings, matching number of unemployed workers. (6) More job quitters confirm tight labor market. (7) So why aren’t wages rising faster? (8) Some quitters, such as Baby Boomers, may be retiring rather than moving to better-paying jobs.
Over There & Over Here
(1) While the Atlantic Ocean is getting warmer, stocks are getting hotter. (2) Venturing abroad. (3) The weak dollar has contributed greatly to outperformance of Go Global vs. Stay Home this year. (4) Boosting global growth: Lower oil prices, European immigration, Chinese bank loans. (5) Industrial production making record highs in Germany. (6) Chinese using more electricity. (7) Global revenues and earnings outlook looks upbeat to industry analysts around the world.
The Jokers Are Wild
(1) Meetings in Chicago and Toronto. (2) Shuffling the deck of cards again. (3) Upping the ante on the Three Deuces scenario. (4) The bond market draws a Joker. (5) The joke on the consensus forecast would be a late-cycle boom. (6) Contrary instincts on high alert. (7) The price of oil should be soaring along with other commodity prices as the dollar sinks, but it isn’t doing so. (8) Stocks are flying in emerging markets. (9) Putting it all together: Noninflationary global boom overseas with slow growth in the US. (10) A winning hand for stocks. (11) The wrath of J.Law and Mother Nature.
Healthy Returns
(1) Biotechs have been taking good care of investors this year. (2) More FDA approvals help. (3) Drugs are increasingly more specialized, treating fewer people at higher prices. (4) T-cells on speed to the rescue. (5) Drug companies buying drugs. (6) Altering genes. (7) Pharmas lagging Biotechs. (8) Chinese fire drill for cryptocurrencies.
H-Bomb Ultimatum
(1) Push comes to shove. (2) How to deal with a pesky saber-rattling brat with nukes. (3) Cruising for a bruising. (4) Two options for getting China to solve the problem. (5) Trade war beats WWIII. (6) Geopolitical crises matter to stocks when they threaten economy. (7) Be ready for trouble. (8) ETFs can grease melt-ups and meltdowns. (9) Equity ETFs still attracting lots of money. (10) Brainard wonders why inflation is disconnected from unemployment. (11) We wonder if she has ever ordered from Amazon. (12) Fed likely to hold off on rate hike.
Back to School
(1) Good summer for stocks and bonds. (2) Explosive domestic political tensions. Boiling geopolitics. (3) US growth on steady course. (4) Capital equipment spending in record territory. (5) M-PMI remains strong despite weak auto sales. (6) Global economic warming attributable to benefits of cheaper oil. (7) Global “oil tax” cut by 50% since mid-2014. (8) Lots of happy numbers in Europe, China, and Japan. (9) Movie review: “Tulip Fever” (- - -).
Store Wars
(1) New age for supermarkets. (2) From King Kullen to Amazon. (3) Clash of the Titans: Sam vs Alexa. (4) Amazon is subduing inflation and frustrating Fed’s inflation target practice. (5) Google teams up with Wal-Mart. (6) Kiosks are the new fast food takeout window. (7) Amazon has the Cloud advantage. (8) India’s manufacturing takes a hit. (9) More bad loans in India. (10) Capital inflows still strong for India.
Tariffying
(1) Space Race. (2) Mail order rockets. (3) Li’l Kim is Rocket Boy. (4) Trump is fighting Kim’s missiles with tariff threats on China. (5) Like Starship Enterprise, S&P 500 flying into uncharted space. (6) Our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator showing plenty of solid rocket fuel. (7) Our Boom-Bust Barometer is going vertical. (8) Consumer confidence indicators justify high P/Es and suggest lower unemployment rate ahead. (9) Despite plentiful jobs, wage inflation remains subdued.
Theatre of the Absurd
(1) Godot was a junkie. (2) If life is meaningless, what’s the point of seeing a play? (3) Lucky was lucky not to have any expectations. (4) Theatre of the Absurd now playing in DC. (5) Existential crisis: Trump’s tax plan doesn’t exist. (6) Untouchables vs dynamic scoring. (7) Medicaid has turned into a big drug dealer. (8) Millennials coming out of their parents’ caves to buy their own caves. (9) Janet Yellen vs Jeff Bezos.
Poker Game
(1) California dreaming. (2) Tuning out Trump, and all the other noise from Washington. (3) Four Deuces scenario would be a winning hand for stocks. (4) If Republicans fail to play their Trump card on tax reform, they could lose the game. (5) The stakes exceed $1 trillion in tax expenditures. (6) Repatriated earnings would raise the ante for a melt-up. (7) Recalling the 1987 game: How a big loss can be followed by a huge win.