Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Whatever It Takes, Again
(1) Can monetary policy fix all problems? (2) Pumping more liquidity. (3) Wealth Effect isn’t trickling down. (4) NIRP in Europe and Japan. (5) Draghi ready to do more of whatever. (6) Modern Tether Theory of the US bond market. (7) Draghi as Sisyphus. (8) EU car sales hitting bottom? (9) Powell’s new obsession: ELB. (10) Is ELB lower than ZLB? (11) The Fed doesn’t have much powder left and should keep it dry. (12) Stocks after first rate cut.
Progressive Economics for Dummies (PED)
(1) Everything for free. (2) Wealth taxes and MMT. (3) Heaven on Earth for all. (4) Are you better off than you were 20 years ago? (5) Never enough. (6) Bill and Elizabeth’s excellent adventure. (7) So why are consumers so upbeat? (8) Happy to quit. (9) Real pay per worker on uptrend since 2000, and so is real income per household. (10) Only 1.3 million taxpayers are in the 1% club. (11) S corporations exaggerate profits’ share of national income. (12) Why are corporations buying their shares back after they’ve run up so much? (13) MMT will make your head spin.
The Mice That Roared
(1) A big mess from one end of the globe to the other. (2) The world’s economy is flat. (3) Why are stocks holding up so well? (4) Donald Trump vs Peter Sellers: US roars back at all the roaring mice. (5) The Fed is ready to help if need be. (6) Inflation is still MIA. (7) Industry analysts remain mostly upbeat on revenues and earnings. (8) Q2 earnings estimates down y/y, but not by much. (9) American consumers doing what they do best. (10) The Fed is listening mostly to academics
Material World
(1) The metal with the PhD in Economics has been a doomsayer for the past year, depressed by trade issues. (2) Copper price has lost 19% y/y, and the S&P 500 Copper stock price index more than twice that. (3) Only this past week has some luster returned. (4) But all that glitters isn’t copper; other S&P 500 Materials-sector industries have been sparkling ytd. (5) Prospects for Construction Materials—also an economic barometer—look particularly bright. (6) New, new thing in retail—stores without addresses or inventory—are giving traditional retailers, Amazon included, a run for their money.
Positive Spins
(1) Is the problem the demand for or the supply of labor? (2) Finally running out of qualified workers. (3) Job openings exceed unemployed workers by record amount. (4) Lots more job openings in cyclical industries, including durables manufacturing and construction. (5) Fewer openings in retail. (6) Labor force shrinking again as Baby Boomers retire faster than younger adults seek jobs. (7) Lots of help wanted at small businesses. (8) Counting on productivity. (9) No recession in latest C&I loans. (10) Fed survey finds that most Americans are comfortable.
Global Scorecard
(1) Spreading soft patch. (2) Easing does it for a while longer. (3) Trump will make or break the global outlook. (4) Famous last words: There will be peace in our time. (5) No rush to leave home and go global. (6) Using China’s trade data to assess the global economy. (7) Still looking like a slowdown rather than a downturn. (8) Europe has problems. (9) Some important soft patches in US. (10) Beige Book is neither red nor green.
Paris, Maine
(1) Watching mountains. (2) Absurd policies possible in the New Abnormal. (3) A deal with Mexico. (4) He said, Xi said. (5) Another panic attack rather than start of bear market? (6) Plenty of job openings, while labor force is shrinking. (7) Wage gains outpacing price increases, as productivity is rebounding. (8) A happy version of the New Abnormal. (9) The 4Ds keeping a tight lid on inflation. (10) Pity the impotent central bankers.
Big Government vs Big FANGs
(1) Is Powell ready to pull the trigger for a rate cut? (2) Fed’s latest word game. (3) What does “appropriate” mean? (4) Is Powell ready to fly with the doves? (5) The debate about a “makeup” strategy for inflation targeting. (6) Rate-cutting risks causing financial instability. (7) Comparing 2019 to 1999. (8) Willy Sutton and the FANGs. (9) Bullish for lobbyists and lawyers. (10) Remember what happened to Microsoft. (11) Growth is scarce. FANGs have it.
Are Analysts Unperturbed or Uninformed?
(1) Are industry analysts too busy to watch the news? (2) Waiting for guidance. (3) Q2 earnings season is coming. (4) Consensus revenues forecasts remain upbeat in the US and abroad. (5) Q1 revenues and earnings growth rates hit cyclical lows? (6) Falling share count added 2.3ppts to Q1 per-share revenues and earnings growth. (7) Blaming the weather, the dollar, and trade tensions. (8) Macro indicators for revenues remain subdued. (9) Looking like an earnings growth recession during H1. (10) The earnings hook again. (11) Joe finds no significant relationship between buybacks and stock prices.
Uncharted Waters
(1) One more month to go to US economy’s 10-year jubilee. (2) LEI does look toppy. (3) More record highs ahead for CEI. (4) No boom, no bust. But what about protectionism? (5) Jury is out on Trump’s helter-skelter approach to trade. (6) Some misgivings about LEI signals during the longest expansion on record. (7) Some cyclical indicators (like jobless claims) simply can’t get much better. (8) Business loans at record high. (9) Borrowing by NFCs in the bond market cooled off dramatically last year. Why?
Trade: Helter Skelter
(1) Stepping up the pressure on Mexico. (2) Will there be any relief for the latest panic attack? (3) Recession signals from the bond market? (4) Yield curve predicting easier monetary policy. (5) US beef with China is about more than just trade. (6) China’s M-PMI shows weakening economy. (7) Mexican standoff. (8) Clarida’s Put. (9) Slicing and dicing NIPA profits. (9) Movie review: “Rocketman” (+ +).
Tapping the Brakes
(1) Are Transports hitting a speed bump? (2) What’s shaking the movers? (3) Shipping hitting tariffs sand bar. (4) Truckers fear the growing Bezos transportation empire. (5) Rail traffic chu-chug-ging slower. (6) Air Freight & Logistics company warns supply chains are up in the air pending tariff resolution. (7) Suffering from senior moments? There are apps for that.
Bonds Have More Fun
(1) Wrong-way bond forecasts. (2) Tethered at the hip. (3) Bond Vigilantes vs Yield Reachers. (4) US bond yields remain outstanding in a world of NZIRP, ZIRP, NIRP, and QE. (5) Low inflation driving bond yields. (6) Economic surprise index also driving bond yields. (7) Yields fall as consumer optimism rebounds. (8) The trade war’s impact. (9) Summers and Krugman attack Kelton’s MMT. (10) Our argument against MMT: Too much debt weighs on growth and can be deflationary.
Game of Thrones
(1) A disappointing ending. (2) Trump’s Game of Thrones spans the world. (3) The new endgame scenario includes no end to trade war with China. (4) Another bearish May will soon go away. (5) Mixed messages from credit markets. (6) The dollar is betting on Trump to win the trade war with China. (7) Both sides still need a deal, but they need to resume trade talks. (8) Panic Attack #63? (9) The world economy remains in pain. (10) Stable genius vs Mao in a business suit. (11) Trump’s iron throne doesn’t have the power to unseat Powell from his Chair. (12) Trump and Pelosi rant wars.
CEOs Discussing Tariffs
(1) In the trade war's trenches. (2) Coming back to America. (3) Leaving China, seeking new suppliers. (4) Earnings hits coming. (5) A letter of protest from sneaker companies. (6) The not-so-good earth for farmers. (7) Huawei getting chipped. (8) It was a really bad winter. (9) Department Stores on sale. (10) Home Improvement Retail fundamentals still improving.
Will Trade Winds Blow Away Earnings?
(1) Q1 earnings tick up y/y. (2) Q2 earnings consensus showing y/y downtick. (3) Escalating trade war starting to weigh on revenues? (4) Forward earnings moving higher. (5) Forward profit margin bottoming at 12%? (6) Boom-Bust Barometer drops along with CRB commodity index. (7) Earnings growth momentum due for a rebound. (8) Still expecting a peace dividend by the end of the summer. (9) Our new comprehensive study on buybacks. (10) Counting shares for the S&P 500 since Q1-2011. (11) Powell’s unalarming speech on corporate debt.
US Consumers: Still Born To Shop?
(1) The United States of Consumers. (2) Blaming the winter weather. (3) We are all minimalists now. (4) Soft patch for consumer spending? (5) Auto sales and gasoline usage may have peaked. (6) Home improvement sales likely to improve. (7) Consumer sentiment at new cyclical high in May. (8) Don’t count on Millennials to buy your house. (9) Buddy, can you spare $400 in an emergency?
Global Economy Dropping Like Lead?
(1) CRB raw industrials spot price index drops on escalating US-China trade war. (2) Another global growth recession, or worse? (3) Global forward revenues on uptrends. (4) Steel price down sharply as European auto production staggers in wake of new auto emissions standard. (5) Still expecting Chinese to cave. (6) Rail freight traffic stalling in China. (7) Six weeks from the longest US economic expansion on record. (8) Home, sweet home. (9) The Fed’s semi-existential crisis. (10) Fed Governor Brainard says Phillips curve is not flat but broken. (11) Brainard begs to differ with her colleagues on low inflation: It may not be transient.
Yin and Yang
(1) A smaller earnings hook. (2) Not a good year for pigs. (3) The Chinese don’t want to be bullied. (4) China’s Orwellian state and Gulag. (5) Real retail sales growth falling as China turns into world’s biggest nursing home. (6) Xi needs a trade deal with US and Trump needs a deal with China. (7) Digital payments system disrupting financial system. (8) Lots of competition to deliver caffeine.
The Recession Question
(1) US economy dwarfs trade flows. (2) Higher tariffs on Chinese goods not likely to boost inflation much. (3) Iran launches a proxy war against the US and its Gulf allies. (4) No recession for earnings during Q1. (5) Expecting double-digit earnings growth in 2020. (6) Remarkably optimistic outlook for S&P 500 revenues. (7) Profit margin getting squeezed, but remains historically high. (8) The Fed is monitoring financial stability. (9) A few signs of stress in credit system, but no cracks.
M*A*S*H
(1) No laughing matter. (2) PTSD from the Trauma of 2008. (3) Latest panic attack (#63) about more than just China trade tensions. (4) Sabotage in the Persian Gulf. (5) Apple’s bad day in court. (6) Flattening yield curve flattens Financials. (7) VIX rising. (8) Too many bulls charged up by trade deal assurances. (9) Commodity prices take a hit. (10) Oil price slips despite attack on tankers. (11) The soybean story. (12) Round trip for lumber.
Trade War & Peace
(1) Miss Piggy, Roger Moore, and trade. (2) Tit for tat. (3) Will Chinese change their laws to protect US trade interests? (4) China selling in US almost four times more than US selling in China. (5) Trump’s tariffs aimed at moving manufacturing out of China rather than at raising US prices of Chinese imports. (6) Not much inflation showing up in US non-oil imports. (7) Weaker yuan offsetting some of the US tariff effect. (8) Our hawks vs their hawks. (9) The Year of the Swine Flu. (10) Other fronts in Trump’s trade war. (11) Movie review: “Tolkien” (+ +).
2020 Vision for Semis
(1) Investors look beyond the semi slump. (2) Hello 2020. (3) Who’s afraid of a trade war? (4) Tech invades real estate. (5) Marriott loving Home Sweet Home. (6) How to sell your home for cash in 24 hours. (7) The We Company makes going to work cool and fun. (8) Free coffee and beer for everyone. (9) Traditional landlords upping their game.
Slowing But Growing
(1) A global soft patch, or something worse? (2) Still counting on a “peace dividend” and on a global productivity boom. (3) Neither boom nor bust in April global PMIs. (4) No recession in commodity prices or in global forward revenues. (5) US transportation indicators may be slowing, or stalling at record highs. (6) Is the US trucking industry downshifting? (7) The Q1 earnings recession has been called off.
Productivity Rebound: Why Now?
(1) Geopolitical crises tend to create buying opportunities. (2) Disorderly world. (3) Iran is between Iraq and a hard place. (4) From community organizers to dealmakers. (5) Trump threatens more tariffs on China to close the trade deal. (6) If productivity is making a comeback, as we expect, potential output growth is higher and NAIRU is lower than CBO estimates. (7) Fed officials, focusing on “transient” disinflation story, may be missing secular one again. (8) Tight labor markets may be triggering faster productivity growth. (9) The “productivity-compensation gap” is a statistical mirage.