Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
The Latest Word from the Fed
(1) China has too much debt producing too much excess capacity. (2) One child to support two parents. (3) “Ghost” trains, airports, and highways? (4) Slowing growth despite record bank loan expansion. (5) Lowest number of births since 1961. (6) Capital outflows increasing again. (7) US frackers are moving US to oil independence. (8) “Patient” is the new word at the Fed, replacing “gradual.” (9) FOMC rotation gives the vote to more patient members.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-23
(1) China has too much debt producing too much excess capacity. (2) One child to support two parents. (3) “Ghost” trains, airports, and highways? (4) Slowing growth despite record bank loan expansion. (5) Lowest number of births since 1961. (6) Capital outflows increasing again. (7) US frackers are moving US to oil independence. (8) “Patient” is the new word at the Fed, replacing “gradual.” (9) FOMC rotation gives the vote to more patient members.
Happy New Year!
(1) The sixth correction. (2) Trump calibrates China trade talk updates to boost stock prices. (3) Fed officials all stressing “patience” and “flexibility.” (4) Reduced earnings estimates are easier to beat. (5) Highly correlated: Oil price goes up, dollar goes down, EM stock prices go up. (6) Risk-on making a big comeback for stocks and credit. (7) 2016 all over again? (8) Government shutdown impacting economic data availability. (9) Available data showing growing economy. (10) Data-dependent Fed has enough to monitor economy. (11) Beige Book is colorful. (12) Movie review: “Stan & Ollie” (+ +).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-22
(1) The sixth correction. (2) Trump calibrates China trade talk updates to boost stock prices. (3) Fed officials all stressing “patience” and “flexibility.” (4) Reduced earnings estimates are easier to beat. (5) Highly correlated: Oil price goes up, dollar goes down, EM stock prices go up. (6) Risk-on making a big comeback for stocks and credit. (7) 2016 all over again? (8) Government shutdown impacting economic data availability. (9) Available data showing growing economy. (10) Data-dependent Fed has enough to monitor economy. (11) Beige Book is colorful. (12) Movie review: “Stan & Ollie” (+ +).
Is the Bear Market Over?
The next Morning Briefing will be sent on Tuesday, January 22. (1) 1987 all over again? (2) Six S&P 500 sectors have rebounded from bear-market territory. (3) Easing does it for Fed, ECB, and PBOC. (4) Financials making a comeback. (5) Despite flat yield curve, interest margin remains high. (6) Commercial and industrial loans are growing. (7) Less mortgage lending. (8) Lower tax rate and more buybacks. (9) Financials are cheap. (10) US and China race for AI dominance. (11) Big Brother is watching. (12) Chinese use AI to direct traffic and check into hotels.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-17
The next Morning Briefing will be sent on Tuesday, January 22. (1) 1987 all over again? (2) Six S&P 500 sectors have rebounded from bear-market territory. (3) Easing does it for Fed, ECB, and PBOC. (4) Financials making a comeback. (5) Despite flat yield curve, interest margin remains high. (6) Commercial and industrial loans are growing. (7) Less mortgage lending. (8) Lower tax rate and more buybacks. (9) Financials are cheap. (10) US and China race for AI dominance. (11) Big Brother is watching. (12) Chinese use AI to direct traffic and check into hotels.
European Tour
(1) Lots of woes in Eurozone. (2) Rapidly decelerating real GDP growth. (3) Underperforming stocks. (4) ECB drops QE and starts looking for other easing tools. (5) Bad batch of leading indicators, sentiment readings, and industrial production. (6) Germany teetering on the edge of recession as auto sales weaken. (7) Not enough Rhine water. (8) Social unrest in France weighing on economy. (9) Hard or soft Brexit? (10) Some good news out of Europe. (11) Draghi sees need for more easy money.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-16
(1) Lots of woes in Eurozone. (2) Rapidly decelerating real GDP growth. (3) Underperforming stocks. (4) ECB drops QE and starts looking for other easing tools. (5) Bad batch of leading indicators, sentiment readings, and industrial production. (6) Germany teetering on the edge of recession as auto sales weaken. (7) Not enough Rhine water. (8) Social unrest in France weighing on economy. (9) Hard or soft Brexit? (10) Some good news out of Europe. (11) Draghi sees need for more easy money.
Liquidity: Plenty or Not Enough?
(1) An ugly scenario much loved by the bears. (2) From QE to QT. (3) Is it all about central bank liquidity? (4) Is the ebb and flow of liquidity like looking in the rear-view mirror? (5) International reserves aren’t growing. (6) Other measures of liquidity showing lots of personal saving, lots of buybacks and dividends, and lots of bank loans. (7) Commercial banks buying Treasuries. (8) 2016: Déjà vu all over again? (9) Global economic indicators are mixed, but mostly weak. (10) Movie review: “Mary Queen of Scots” (+).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-15
(1) An ugly scenario much loved by the bears. (2) From QE to QT. (3) Is it all about central bank liquidity? (4) Is the ebb and flow of liquidity like looking in the rear-view mirror? (5) International reserves aren’t growing. (6) Other measures of liquidity showing lots of personal saving, lots of buybacks and dividends, and lots of bank loans. (7) Commercial banks buying Treasuries. (8) 2016: Déjà vu all over again? (9) Global economic indicators are mixed, but mostly weak. (10) Movie review: “Mary Queen of Scots” (+).
Lesson Learned in 2018
(1) A show of hands in Charlotte. (2) Bull-Bear Ratio so low it’s bullish. (3) Are the bears satisfied, or do they want more? (4) 1987: Déjà vu all over again. (5) No recession in the wings. (6) Volatility confirms that stocks should be held for the long run rather than traded in the short run. (7) Earnings growth this year weighed down by unbeatable earnings growth last year. (8) Industry analysts lowering their earnings growth rates for this year, though revenues growth expectations firming. (9) Profit margins have peaked. (10) Valuation multiples are cheap. (11) Movie: “On the Basis of Sex” (+ +).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-14
(1) A show of hands in Charlotte. (2) Bull-Bear Ratio so low it’s bullish. (3) Are the bears satisfied, or do they want more? (4) 1987: Déjà vu all over again. (5) No recession in the wings. (6) Volatility confirms that stocks should be held for the long run rather than traded in the short run. (7) Earnings growth this year weighed down by unbeatable earnings growth last year. (8) Industry analysts lowering their earnings growth rates for this year, though revenues growth expectations firming. (9) Profit margins have peaked. (10) Valuation multiples are cheap. (11) Movie: “On the Basis of Sex” (+ +).
5G or Not 5G?
(1) The next New, New Thing? (2) 4G is the Old, Old Thing for Apple and Samsung. (3) Will 5G stay in Vegas? (4) Bulls vs. bears on 5G. (5) The Internet of Things can use a faster wireless network with more capacity for more things. (6) IBM showing off its latest quantum computer at CES. (7) Neither 5G nor quantum computing is ready for prime time. (8) Could an amateur scientist featured on “60 Minutes” possibly have the next New, New Thing in energy?
Morning Briefing 2019-01-10
(1) The next New, New Thing? (2) 4G is the Old, Old Thing for Apple and Samsung. (3) Will 5G stay in Vegas? (4) Bulls vs. bears on 5G. (5) The Internet of Things can use a faster wireless network with more capacity for more things. (6) IBM showing off its latest quantum computer at CES. (7) Neither 5G nor quantum computing is ready for prime time. (8) Could an amateur scientist featured on “60 Minutes” possibly have the next New, New Thing in energy?
The Dark Side of the Moon
(1) China’s lunar landing to collect moon’s fairy dust. (2) China’s Xi has problems back on Earth. (3) Wilbur Ross disagrees with Tim Cook. (4) China’s M-PMIs are below 50.0. (5) China’s real retail sales growth slowing. (6) Getting harder to sell autos and apartments in China. (7) Trump and Ross believe China needs a deal badly. (8) The talks are going “well.” (9) The end of the ceasefire is approaching. (10) PBOC cutting reserve requirements.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-09
(1) China’s lunar landing to collect moon’s fairy dust. (2) China’s Xi has problems back on Earth. (3) Wilbur Ross disagrees with Tim Cook. (4) China’s M-PMIs are below 50.0. (5) China’s real retail sales growth slowing. (6) Getting harder to sell autos and apartments in China. (7) Trump and Ross believe China needs a deal badly. (8) The talks are going “well.” (9) The end of the ceasefire is approaching. (10) PBOC cutting reserve requirements.
Deflationary Demographic Developments
(1) Humans on a demographic path to self-extinction. (2) Crowded nursing homes. Empty maternity wards. (3) China will soon be world's largest nursing home. (4) Japan is leading the way with more deaths than births. (5) China's misguided one-child policy now turning into a demographic nightmare. (6) Births fall in US to lowest since 1979. (7) Too many minimalists? (8) Prices-paid indexes taking a dive along with oil prices. (9) Q4 earnings season starting.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-08
(1) Humans on a demographic path to self-extinction. (2) Crowded nursing homes. Empty maternity wards. (3) China will soon be world's largest nursing home. (4) Japan is leading the way with more deaths than births. (5) China's misguided one-child policy now turning into a demographic nightmare. (6) Births fall in US to lowest since 1979. (7) Too many minimalists? (8) Prices-paid indexes taking a dive along with oil prices. (9) Q4 earnings season starting.
Patient Powell’s Put
(1) No recession in GDPNow model. (2) Credit market indicators say Fed is done tightening. (3) There was a December “flash recession” in Fed district surveys, led by drop in new orders. (4) A few leading indicators flashing yellow. (5) Labor market still booming. (6) Trucking indicators still barreling along. (7) Powell turns from hawk to dove. (8) Pressing the pause button. (9) Fed going from “gradual” to “flexible.” (10) The Dow Vigilantes have gotten the Powell Put for now. (11) Powell concedes that financial markets matter. (12) Movie review: “Vice” (-).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-07
(1) No recession in GDPNow model. (2) Credit market indicators say Fed is done tightening. (3) There was a December “flash recession” in Fed district surveys, led by drop in new orders. (4) A few leading indicators flashing yellow. (5) Labor market still booming. (6) Trucking indicators still barreling along. (7) Powell turns from hawk to dove. (8) Pressing the pause button. (9) Fed going from “gradual” to “flexible.” (10) The Dow Vigilantes have gotten the Powell Put for now. (11) Powell concedes that financial markets matter. (12) Movie review: “Vice” (-).
Unhealthy Developments
The next Morning Briefing will be sent on Monday, January 7. We wish you all the best during the holidays and the year ahead. (1) Powell is no Santa. (2) Bonds rally as stocks sink. (3) Mnuchin suspects HFTs adding to volatility. (4) Judges making Health Care sick. (5) Autonomous cars hit the road but still need driver’s ed. (6) Manufacturers to China: “We’re outta here.”
European Disunion
(1) Analysts starting to cut earnings estimates for 2019 and 2020. (2) Tough comps ahead. (3) Analysts still remarkably upbeat about revenues outlook. (4) But they are lowering their earnings estimates for Q4-2018 through Q4-2019. (5) After 20 years of monetary unification, Eurozone faces lots of challenges. (6) The Brits may be leaving the EU at a good time if forces of disunion mount. (7) Bad timing: ECB moving to normalize policy as Eurozone economy weakens. (8) Brexit is hard to do. (9) Political agitations in France, Germany, and Italy.
The True Story
(1) Druckenmiller and Warsh speak for the Dow Vigilantes. (2) Jerome, Virginia, and Santa. (3) Yield curve has a good track record excluding the false alarms. (4) Focusing on bank net interest margin. (5) No credit crunch in banking sector. (6) Capital spending is at a record high despite record buybacks plus dividends. (7) Net bond borrowing by nonfinancial corporations is falling fast. (8) Fed vice chair is a folk-rock singer and about to take the Fed on a magical mystery tour of monetary policy. (9) Alternative ways to target inflation under Fed consideration.
Deflationary Demographics
(1) No relief yet for latest panic attack. (2) The new worry is that China’s weak data suggest global growth at risk. (3) Investors accentuating the negatives, ignoring the positives. (4) GDPNow now at 3%. (5) Jobless claims drop. (6) ECB ready to end QE, but not ready to lift interest rates. (7) China’s real retail sales growth continues to fall as a result of rapidly aging demography. (8) Baby Boomers are turning into minimalists, like the Millennials. (9) Demographic trends suggest consumer-led boom unlikely in US. (10) No boom, no bust. (11) Movie review: “The Mule” (+).
Unloved Industrious Industrials
(1) Industrials will fall or rise depending on whether US-China trade war does or does not escalate. (2) So far, trade war with China may be boosting US imports before tariffs are raised and spread. (3) US production remains strong. (4) GE weighs on Conglomerates. (5) Barron’s likes CAT. (6) Housing hammered. (7) Industrial services providers serving well. (8) Amazon is both a great disruptor and a great motivator for its competitors. (9) Did you take your pills today? (10) Walmart’s robots.