Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Intrusive Disruptive Technology
(1) Holding onto gains. (2) Hot cyclicals. (3) Waiving a deadline. (4) Downturn in interest rates helps too. (5) About Facebook. (6) Our smart devices are spying on us. (7) Smile for the cameras. (8) Alexa feels your pain. (9) Your DNA can be easily traced. (10) Governments’ Big Brothers have our numbers.
Fed Heads Galore
(1) Frustrated bears. (2) More recessionary indicators. (3) Chauncey Gardiner predicts: “There will be growth in the spring.” (4) Industry analysts on verge of calling an earnings recession for H1-2019, yet they are turning more upbeat on 2020. (5) A sunnier disposition for consumers. (6) A funny thing happened on the way to the forum. (7) Fed officials pontificate on Fed’s balance sheet and inflation targeting.
From MOU to MAMU?
(1) Extending the deadline. (2) Open issues include how to enforce a deal. (3) Trump has a tiff with Lighthizer. (4) Both Xi and Trump need a deal. (5) Once again, “it’s the economy, stupid.” (6) Diverging labor markets: Strong in US, weak in China. (7) The Cheerleader-in-Chief: Trump likes meltups more than meltdowns in the stock market. (8) Global stock and commodity markets discounting a trade deal and better global growth. (9) The forex and bond markets are sitting on the fence. (10) No recession in credit yield spreads.
Stocks Go from Doom to Vroom!
(1) More concern about the extinction prediction. (2) The rest of the world is catching up to Japan’s birth dearth problem. (3) A new book predicts an “empty planet.” (So it should be easier to make a reservation at good restaurants.) (4) Hungary running out of goulash eaters. (5) It’s official: China’s maternity wards are emptying out as its nursing homes fill up. (6) Chinese producing more debt, fewer babies. (7) Stimulating baby-making with incentives in Russia. (8) Round up the usual suspects: US DOJ has a long rap sheet on Chinese spies.
Demography Goes Mainstream
(1) More concern about the extinction prediction. (2) The rest of the world is catching up to Japan’s birth dearth problem. (3) A new book predicts an “empty planet.” (So it should be easier to make a reservation at good restaurants.) (4) Hungary running out of goulash eaters. (5) It’s official: China’s maternity wards are emptying out as its nursing homes fill up. (6) Chinese producing more debt, fewer babies. (7) Stimulating baby-making with incentives in Russia. (8) Round up the usual suspects: US DOJ has a long rap sheet on Chinese spies.
In Praise of Folly: Stopping Stock Buybacks
(1) Mencken, Reagan & Emanuel on government. (2) Senators Schumer and Sanders are here to help. (3) Buybacks were once banned. Should they be limited now? (4) Unintended consequences of Clinton’s million-dollar cap for exec pay. (5) S&P data suggest aim of buybacks is to reduce dilution from stock compensation rather than to boost earnings per share! (6) Almost 100% of profits used for buybacks and dividends, leaving “only” depreciation allowance to fund plenty of capex. (7) Labor market data belie notion that real incomes and wages have been stagnating for most households and workers. (8) The income inequality debate. (9) Workers of America, buy stocks in your 401(k)s and IRAs!
Recharging Bull
(1) Rational buying follows irrational selloff. (2) V-shaped rebound in stock prices. (3) Bull will get big prize in early March. (4) New record high? Toga! Toga! Toga! (5) Flash recession? (6) Temps and truckers remain upbeat. (7) Earnings recessions aren’t always bearish. (8) Who’s to blame for Panic Attack #62? (9) Naming names: The falsely and justly accused. (10) Quiet time ahead for Fed’s QT? (11) Movie review: “Capernaum” (+ + +).
Techlash
The next Morning Briefing will be sent on Tuesday, February 19. (1) 2015 all over again? (2) 2018 was a banner year for earnings and impossible to beat this year. (3) Earnings growth recession possible this year. (4) So why are stock prices rallying when everyone is cutting earnings estimates? (5) Those forecasting an earnings recession are also predicting test of Xmas Eve low. (6) All we are saying is: Give 3100 a chance, again. (7) Trump’s tax cut was worth $20 per share. (8) Tech companies have a privacy issue. (9) Internet Bill of Rights. (10) Don’t get Zucked! (11) Information Fiduciaries. (12) Will 5G fry our brains?
A Passage to India
(1) EM stock prices rebounding from last year’s rout. (2) Fed calls the shots for EM stocks, bonds, and currencies. (3) US stocks have significantly outperformed the rest of the world during the current bull market. (4) The rest of the world has more homegrown problems than does the US. (5) After five-year run, India’s Modi is facing a spring election. (6) India’s farmers and poor haven’t fared well under Modi. (7) India has lots of mouths to feed, yet food prices are falling. (8) Rigging GDP growth and the jobless rate. (9) The central bank is easing just in time for elections.
One & Done? Up or Down?
(1) An old adage. (2) Yellen is a classic “two-handed economist.” (3) 2016: Déjà vu all over again. (4) 2-year Treasury divines the Fed’s future moves. (5) Flat yield curve is in none-and-done camp. (6) No recession in credit-quality yield spreads. (7) Will the buck stop here? (8) ECB and BOJ remain much more dovish than Fed. (9) Oil prices remarkably firm given gushing US oil wells. (10) EMs get a boost from Fed pause. (11) A deal with China could provide a short-term boost to Go Global investment strategy.
Donald Trump & Gwyneth Paltrow
(1) Can the US economy decouple from China and Europe? (2) January’s payroll gain was boosted by government shutdown. (3) No sign of recession in US employment indicators. (4) Will tighter lending standards derail US expansion? (5) China needs a trade deal with US. (6) Trump wants supply chains to leave China. (7) More disintegration than integration in EU. (8) Europe on the edge of a recession. (9) Raise taxes on the wealthy, and they will leave. (10) Movie review: “The Invisibles” (+ + +).
Spy Games
(1) CEOs tacitly support Trump’s calling out China on trade and IP. (2) Case studies of how China steals IP. (3) Swiping Tappy from T-Mobile. (4) Undercover hackers uncovered. (5) Planting spies in US companies. (6) Recruiting Chinese students studying abroad. (7) Communication Services companies on spending spree for streamable content.
Modern Monetary Theory
(1) Why are bond yields so subdued? (2) Modern Monetary Theory is the flavor of the day. (3) Kelton says federal deficits don’t matter until they matter to inflation. (4) Politicians, naturally, love MMT. (5) Link between deficits and inflation isn’t what it once was. (6) Other than Starbuck’s ex-CEO, does anyone hate deficits anymore? (7) Taking a walk on the supply side. (8) The CBO is so old school.
Revenues: Good & Bad News
(1) Good news for revenues in January’s M-PMI. (2) New orders index rebounded last month, while new factory orders continued to grow in November. (3) Hard to match last year’s revenues growth. (4) Weak global economic indicators weighing on outlook for S&P 500 revenues growth. (5) Global M-PMI falling. (6) Global leading indicators increasingly downbeat, especially for Europe and China. (7) Copper starting to shine. (8) Dollar remains a headwind for revenues growth.
Recession: Gone in a Flash
(1) Fed goes from alarmingly hawkish to remarkably dovish. (2) Is the stock market looking at 2020 earnings? (3) Valuation has been on a rollercoaster. (4) Rounding up more suspects for 2018’s year-end crash. (5) Self-induced selloff. (6) Flash crashes create buying opportunities. (7) Perma-bears waiting for Godot. (8) No recession in employment, wages, and M-PMI. (9) Kudlow for Fed governor! (10) Fed moving to the supply side? (11) Powell is flexible and patient after all. (12) Movie review: “They Shall Not Grow Old.” (+ + +).
Technology Today & Tomorrow
(1) S&P 500 no longer predicting a recession. (2) Consumer expectations are depressed, but that’s likely to be temporary. (3) Fed back on right track for bulls. (4) Tech companies may be facing saturated markets for smartphones and cloud servers, and a China slowdown. (5) Nevertheless, the future remains bright for tech hardware and software. (6) Bloomberg’s must-see video on China’s great leap into the future. (7) China is becoming a Digital Orwellian State (DOS).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-31
(1) S&P 500 no longer predicting a recession. (2) Consumer expectations are depressed, but that’s likely to be temporary. (3) Fed back on right track for bulls. (4) Tech companies may be facing saturated markets for smartphones and cloud servers, and a China slowdown. (5) Nevertheless, the future remains bright for tech hardware and software. (6) Bloomberg’s must-see video on China’s great leap into the future. (7) China is becoming a Digital Orwellian State (DOS).
The Global Birth Dearth
(1) Household count increases as households last longer. (2) More owner-occupied households led by more of those 65 years of age and older. (3) Demographic forces netting out, as some may be causing a shortage, others a glut, of housing inventory. (4) More Millennial women are working and having fewer babies. (5) The baby bust may be weighing on global growth. (6) A very skewed male/female ratio in China. (7) The case for having fewer children. (8) Productivity is the only good response to low fertility.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-30
(1) Household count increases as households last longer. (2) More owner-occupied households led by more of those 65 years of age and older. (3) Demographic forces netting out, as some may be causing a shortage, others a glut, of housing inventory. (4) More Millennial women are working and having fewer babies. (5) The baby bust may be weighing on global growth. (6) A very skewed male/female ratio in China. (7) The case for having fewer children. (8) Productivity is the only good response to low fertility.
On the Margin
(1) Puzzle: Why are analysts cutting their earnings estimates but not their revenues estimates? (2) Lots of good reasons why profit margins might be getting squeezed. (3) Analysts are natural-born optimists. (4) S&P 500 forward revenues at record high, while forward earnings are sliding from recent record high. (5) Wage version of Phillips curve making a comeback finally. (6) Pricing power isn’t what it used to be back in the 1970s and 1980s. (7) Corporate managements took an oath after “Trauma of 2008” to keep their profit margins high. (8) Forward profit margins looking toppy for the S&P 500 sectors. (9) Tech’s profit margin stands out because it is outstanding.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-29
(1) Puzzle: Why are analysts cutting their earnings estimates but not their revenues estimates? (2) Lots of good reasons why profit margins might be getting squeezed. (3) Analysts are natural-born optimists. (4) S&P 500 forward revenues at record high, while forward earnings are sliding from recent record high. (5) Wage version of Phillips curve making a comeback finally. (6) Pricing power isn’t what it used to be back in the 1970s and 1980s. (7) Corporate managements took an oath after “Trauma of 2008” to keep their profit margins high. (8) Forward profit margins looking toppy for the S&P 500 sectors. (9) Tech’s profit margin stands out because it is outstanding.
The Next Recession
(1) The boom-bust cycle. (2) Might fear of a recession cause a recession? (3) Bad news sells newspapers. (4) WSJ article suggests QT will soon be off autopilot. (5) Both US and China need to end trade war. (6) Stock market climbing walls. (7) The next recession could start November 4, 2020. (8) Leading indicators index stalls, while jobless claims remain upbeat. (9) Regional Fed surveys remained downbeat in January, but Markit M-PMI was happier. (10) Europe has a bunch of woes weighing on economy. (11) Movie review: “Serenity” (+).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-28
(1) The boom-bust cycle. (2) Might fear of a recession cause a recession? (3) Bad news sells newspapers. (4) WSJ article suggests QT will soon be off autopilot. (5) Both US and China need to end trade war. (6) Stock market climbing walls. (7) The next recession could start November 4, 2020. (8) Leading indicators index stalls, while jobless claims remain upbeat. (9) Regional Fed surveys remained downbeat in January, but Markit M-PMI was happier. (10) Europe has a bunch of woes weighing on economy. (11) Movie review: “Serenity” (+).
Analysts Cutting Earnings Estimates
(1) Analysts scrambling to cut 2019 earnings estimates, but not doing so for revenues. (2) IMF shaves world GDP growth, led by Europe, with no change for US and China. (3) Q1-Q3 consensus earnings growth down to low single digits. (4) Valuation multiples may have more upside in a world of slow growth with low inflation and interest rates. (5) Two downbeat, and one upbeat, earnings conference calls. (6) Preparing for a recession reduces likelihood it will happen. (7) Will batteries be the next New, New Thing?
Morning Briefing 2019-01-24
(1) Analysts scrambling to cut 2019 earnings estimates, but not doing so for revenues. (2) IMF shaves world GDP growth, led by Europe, with no change for US and China. (3) Q1-Q3 consensus earnings growth down to low single digits. (4) Valuation multiples may have more upside in a world of slow growth with low inflation and interest rates. (5) Two downbeat, and one upbeat, earnings conference calls. (6) Preparing for a recession reduces likelihood it will happen. (7) Will batteries be the next New, New Thing?