Daily Research Updates
Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Recession: Gone in a Flash
(1) Fed goes from alarmingly hawkish to remarkably dovish. (2) Is the stock market looking at 2020 earnings? (3) Valuation has been on a rollercoaster. (4) Rounding up more suspects for 2018’s year-end crash. (5) Self-induced selloff. (6) Flash crashes create buying opportunities. (7) Perma-bears waiting for Godot. (8) No recession in employment, wages, and M-PMI. (9) Kudlow for Fed governor! (10) Fed moving to the supply side? (11) Powell is flexible and patient after all. (12) Movie review: “They Shall Not Grow Old.” (+ + +).
Technology Today & Tomorrow
(1) S&P 500 no longer predicting a recession. (2) Consumer expectations are depressed, but that’s likely to be temporary. (3) Fed back on right track for bulls. (4) Tech companies may be facing saturated markets for smartphones and cloud servers, and a China slowdown. (5) Nevertheless, the future remains bright for tech hardware and software. (6) Bloomberg’s must-see video on China’s great leap into the future. (7) China is becoming a Digital Orwellian State (DOS).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-31
(1) S&P 500 no longer predicting a recession. (2) Consumer expectations are depressed, but that’s likely to be temporary. (3) Fed back on right track for bulls. (4) Tech companies may be facing saturated markets for smartphones and cloud servers, and a China slowdown. (5) Nevertheless, the future remains bright for tech hardware and software. (6) Bloomberg’s must-see video on China’s great leap into the future. (7) China is becoming a Digital Orwellian State (DOS).
The Global Birth Dearth
(1) Household count increases as households last longer. (2) More owner-occupied households led by more of those 65 years of age and older. (3) Demographic forces netting out, as some may be causing a shortage, others a glut, of housing inventory. (4) More Millennial women are working and having fewer babies. (5) The baby bust may be weighing on global growth. (6) A very skewed male/female ratio in China. (7) The case for having fewer children. (8) Productivity is the only good response to low fertility.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-30
(1) Household count increases as households last longer. (2) More owner-occupied households led by more of those 65 years of age and older. (3) Demographic forces netting out, as some may be causing a shortage, others a glut, of housing inventory. (4) More Millennial women are working and having fewer babies. (5) The baby bust may be weighing on global growth. (6) A very skewed male/female ratio in China. (7) The case for having fewer children. (8) Productivity is the only good response to low fertility.
On the Margin
(1) Puzzle: Why are analysts cutting their earnings estimates but not their revenues estimates? (2) Lots of good reasons why profit margins might be getting squeezed. (3) Analysts are natural-born optimists. (4) S&P 500 forward revenues at record high, while forward earnings are sliding from recent record high. (5) Wage version of Phillips curve making a comeback finally. (6) Pricing power isn’t what it used to be back in the 1970s and 1980s. (7) Corporate managements took an oath after “Trauma of 2008” to keep their profit margins high. (8) Forward profit margins looking toppy for the S&P 500 sectors. (9) Tech’s profit margin stands out because it is outstanding.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-29
(1) Puzzle: Why are analysts cutting their earnings estimates but not their revenues estimates? (2) Lots of good reasons why profit margins might be getting squeezed. (3) Analysts are natural-born optimists. (4) S&P 500 forward revenues at record high, while forward earnings are sliding from recent record high. (5) Wage version of Phillips curve making a comeback finally. (6) Pricing power isn’t what it used to be back in the 1970s and 1980s. (7) Corporate managements took an oath after “Trauma of 2008” to keep their profit margins high. (8) Forward profit margins looking toppy for the S&P 500 sectors. (9) Tech’s profit margin stands out because it is outstanding.
The Next Recession
(1) The boom-bust cycle. (2) Might fear of a recession cause a recession? (3) Bad news sells newspapers. (4) WSJ article suggests QT will soon be off autopilot. (5) Both US and China need to end trade war. (6) Stock market climbing walls. (7) The next recession could start November 4, 2020. (8) Leading indicators index stalls, while jobless claims remain upbeat. (9) Regional Fed surveys remained downbeat in January, but Markit M-PMI was happier. (10) Europe has a bunch of woes weighing on economy. (11) Movie review: “Serenity” (+).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-28
(1) The boom-bust cycle. (2) Might fear of a recession cause a recession? (3) Bad news sells newspapers. (4) WSJ article suggests QT will soon be off autopilot. (5) Both US and China need to end trade war. (6) Stock market climbing walls. (7) The next recession could start November 4, 2020. (8) Leading indicators index stalls, while jobless claims remain upbeat. (9) Regional Fed surveys remained downbeat in January, but Markit M-PMI was happier. (10) Europe has a bunch of woes weighing on economy. (11) Movie review: “Serenity” (+).
Analysts Cutting Earnings Estimates
(1) Analysts scrambling to cut 2019 earnings estimates, but not doing so for revenues. (2) IMF shaves world GDP growth, led by Europe, with no change for US and China. (3) Q1-Q3 consensus earnings growth down to low single digits. (4) Valuation multiples may have more upside in a world of slow growth with low inflation and interest rates. (5) Two downbeat, and one upbeat, earnings conference calls. (6) Preparing for a recession reduces likelihood it will happen. (7) Will batteries be the next New, New Thing?
Morning Briefing 2019-01-24
(1) Analysts scrambling to cut 2019 earnings estimates, but not doing so for revenues. (2) IMF shaves world GDP growth, led by Europe, with no change for US and China. (3) Q1-Q3 consensus earnings growth down to low single digits. (4) Valuation multiples may have more upside in a world of slow growth with low inflation and interest rates. (5) Two downbeat, and one upbeat, earnings conference calls. (6) Preparing for a recession reduces likelihood it will happen. (7) Will batteries be the next New, New Thing?
The Latest Word from the Fed
(1) China has too much debt producing too much excess capacity. (2) One child to support two parents. (3) “Ghost” trains, airports, and highways? (4) Slowing growth despite record bank loan expansion. (5) Lowest number of births since 1961. (6) Capital outflows increasing again. (7) US frackers are moving US to oil independence. (8) “Patient” is the new word at the Fed, replacing “gradual.” (9) FOMC rotation gives the vote to more patient members.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-23
(1) China has too much debt producing too much excess capacity. (2) One child to support two parents. (3) “Ghost” trains, airports, and highways? (4) Slowing growth despite record bank loan expansion. (5) Lowest number of births since 1961. (6) Capital outflows increasing again. (7) US frackers are moving US to oil independence. (8) “Patient” is the new word at the Fed, replacing “gradual.” (9) FOMC rotation gives the vote to more patient members.
Happy New Year!
(1) The sixth correction. (2) Trump calibrates China trade talk updates to boost stock prices. (3) Fed officials all stressing “patience” and “flexibility.” (4) Reduced earnings estimates are easier to beat. (5) Highly correlated: Oil price goes up, dollar goes down, EM stock prices go up. (6) Risk-on making a big comeback for stocks and credit. (7) 2016 all over again? (8) Government shutdown impacting economic data availability. (9) Available data showing growing economy. (10) Data-dependent Fed has enough to monitor economy. (11) Beige Book is colorful. (12) Movie review: “Stan & Ollie” (+ +).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-22
(1) The sixth correction. (2) Trump calibrates China trade talk updates to boost stock prices. (3) Fed officials all stressing “patience” and “flexibility.” (4) Reduced earnings estimates are easier to beat. (5) Highly correlated: Oil price goes up, dollar goes down, EM stock prices go up. (6) Risk-on making a big comeback for stocks and credit. (7) 2016 all over again? (8) Government shutdown impacting economic data availability. (9) Available data showing growing economy. (10) Data-dependent Fed has enough to monitor economy. (11) Beige Book is colorful. (12) Movie review: “Stan & Ollie” (+ +).
Is the Bear Market Over?
The next Morning Briefing will be sent on Tuesday, January 22. (1) 1987 all over again? (2) Six S&P 500 sectors have rebounded from bear-market territory. (3) Easing does it for Fed, ECB, and PBOC. (4) Financials making a comeback. (5) Despite flat yield curve, interest margin remains high. (6) Commercial and industrial loans are growing. (7) Less mortgage lending. (8) Lower tax rate and more buybacks. (9) Financials are cheap. (10) US and China race for AI dominance. (11) Big Brother is watching. (12) Chinese use AI to direct traffic and check into hotels.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-17
The next Morning Briefing will be sent on Tuesday, January 22. (1) 1987 all over again? (2) Six S&P 500 sectors have rebounded from bear-market territory. (3) Easing does it for Fed, ECB, and PBOC. (4) Financials making a comeback. (5) Despite flat yield curve, interest margin remains high. (6) Commercial and industrial loans are growing. (7) Less mortgage lending. (8) Lower tax rate and more buybacks. (9) Financials are cheap. (10) US and China race for AI dominance. (11) Big Brother is watching. (12) Chinese use AI to direct traffic and check into hotels.
European Tour
(1) Lots of woes in Eurozone. (2) Rapidly decelerating real GDP growth. (3) Underperforming stocks. (4) ECB drops QE and starts looking for other easing tools. (5) Bad batch of leading indicators, sentiment readings, and industrial production. (6) Germany teetering on the edge of recession as auto sales weaken. (7) Not enough Rhine water. (8) Social unrest in France weighing on economy. (9) Hard or soft Brexit? (10) Some good news out of Europe. (11) Draghi sees need for more easy money.
Morning Briefing 2019-01-16
(1) Lots of woes in Eurozone. (2) Rapidly decelerating real GDP growth. (3) Underperforming stocks. (4) ECB drops QE and starts looking for other easing tools. (5) Bad batch of leading indicators, sentiment readings, and industrial production. (6) Germany teetering on the edge of recession as auto sales weaken. (7) Not enough Rhine water. (8) Social unrest in France weighing on economy. (9) Hard or soft Brexit? (10) Some good news out of Europe. (11) Draghi sees need for more easy money.
Liquidity: Plenty or Not Enough?
(1) An ugly scenario much loved by the bears. (2) From QE to QT. (3) Is it all about central bank liquidity? (4) Is the ebb and flow of liquidity like looking in the rear-view mirror? (5) International reserves aren’t growing. (6) Other measures of liquidity showing lots of personal saving, lots of buybacks and dividends, and lots of bank loans. (7) Commercial banks buying Treasuries. (8) 2016: Déjà vu all over again? (9) Global economic indicators are mixed, but mostly weak. (10) Movie review: “Mary Queen of Scots” (+).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-15
(1) An ugly scenario much loved by the bears. (2) From QE to QT. (3) Is it all about central bank liquidity? (4) Is the ebb and flow of liquidity like looking in the rear-view mirror? (5) International reserves aren’t growing. (6) Other measures of liquidity showing lots of personal saving, lots of buybacks and dividends, and lots of bank loans. (7) Commercial banks buying Treasuries. (8) 2016: Déjà vu all over again? (9) Global economic indicators are mixed, but mostly weak. (10) Movie review: “Mary Queen of Scots” (+).
Lesson Learned in 2018
(1) A show of hands in Charlotte. (2) Bull-Bear Ratio so low it’s bullish. (3) Are the bears satisfied, or do they want more? (4) 1987: Déjà vu all over again. (5) No recession in the wings. (6) Volatility confirms that stocks should be held for the long run rather than traded in the short run. (7) Earnings growth this year weighed down by unbeatable earnings growth last year. (8) Industry analysts lowering their earnings growth rates for this year, though revenues growth expectations firming. (9) Profit margins have peaked. (10) Valuation multiples are cheap. (11) Movie: “On the Basis of Sex” (+ +).
Morning Briefing 2019-01-14
(1) A show of hands in Charlotte. (2) Bull-Bear Ratio so low it’s bullish. (3) Are the bears satisfied, or do they want more? (4) 1987: Déjà vu all over again. (5) No recession in the wings. (6) Volatility confirms that stocks should be held for the long run rather than traded in the short run. (7) Earnings growth this year weighed down by unbeatable earnings growth last year. (8) Industry analysts lowering their earnings growth rates for this year, though revenues growth expectations firming. (9) Profit margins have peaked. (10) Valuation multiples are cheap. (11) Movie: “On the Basis of Sex” (+ +).
5G or Not 5G?
(1) The next New, New Thing? (2) 4G is the Old, Old Thing for Apple and Samsung. (3) Will 5G stay in Vegas? (4) Bulls vs. bears on 5G. (5) The Internet of Things can use a faster wireless network with more capacity for more things. (6) IBM showing off its latest quantum computer at CES. (7) Neither 5G nor quantum computing is ready for prime time. (8) Could an amateur scientist featured on “60 Minutes” possibly have the next New, New Thing in energy?
Morning Briefing 2019-01-10
(1) The next New, New Thing? (2) 4G is the Old, Old Thing for Apple and Samsung. (3) Will 5G stay in Vegas? (4) Bulls vs. bears on 5G. (5) The Internet of Things can use a faster wireless network with more capacity for more things. (6) IBM showing off its latest quantum computer at CES. (7) Neither 5G nor quantum computing is ready for prime time. (8) Could an amateur scientist featured on “60 Minutes” possibly have the next New, New Thing in energy?